Oakridge Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$220,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily · 789 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 789 days

🏗️ New construction. The $220,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $228,607.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 789 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 789 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,607
• List price: $220,990
• Delta: -3.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14897 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	6mo	$226,990	$178	90
14704 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	1mo	$223,990	$176	89
14888 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	7mo	$222,990	$175	88
2627 Rain Quail Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	1mo	$233,990	$166	71
14884 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	6mo	$229,990	$163	71
14720 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$233,990	$166	70
14896 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	6mo	$236,990	$167	70
14700 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	1mo	$233,990	$165	70
14885 North Ascot Bend Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	6mo	$232,990	$164	70
14716 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	2mo	$230,990	$163	69
3564 Korina Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+6%)	2mo	$215,000	$160	66
14148 Kamilia Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+12%)	2mo	$256,000	$180	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-27,151
• Equity at exit: $34,086

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,811
• Equity at exit: $19,766

Cash invested: $64,010 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,429/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,000

Max offer price $228,607

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,152
• Closing costs: $6,858
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.12mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	22d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,990 Active 789 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,990 Active 788 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,990 Active 787 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,990 Active 786 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,990 Active 784 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,990 Active 780 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,990 Active 779 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,990 Active 778 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,990 Active 775 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,990 Active 774 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,990 Active 772 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,990 Active 771 DOM
13. 2024-09-24
    price $220,990 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

14. 2024-09-24
    price $218,990 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

15. 2024-09-24
    price $220,990 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

16. 2024-05-10
    price $218,990 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

17. 2024-04-20
    listed $510,000 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,806
• − Property taxes: −$3,429
• − Insurance: −$1,143
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − Depreciation: −$6,650
• Taxable loss: −$1,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$455
• After-tax cash flow: $2,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a clean exterior. The home is ready for a fresh paint job and some minor updates to the flooring and appliances to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-56.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $220,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $218,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $220,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $218,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-20 Listed $510,000 Zillow