317 E Main St #309 · Middletown, NY 10940

$630,000

7 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,449 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1803 0.63 ac lot Est $736k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful two-family home located on E Main Street! Perfect for owner-occupants, investors, or extended family living, this spacious property offers incredible flexibility and charm. One unit features 6 bedrooms, while the second unit offers 4 bedrooms, providing plenty of spac. Both units have separate front and side entrances for added privacy and convenience. The property sits on a beautifully maintained lot with lush landscaping, mature trees, and exceptional curb appeal. Additional features include two large parking areas, a detached two-car garage, and plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, restaurants, and major highways, this h

Key facts

• Two family home
• Lush landscaping
• Mature trees

Tags

• TWO FAMILY HOME
• SEPARATE FRONT ENTRANCES
• SEPARATE SIDE ENTRANCES
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED LOT
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Total parking for 12 vehicles; Driveway parking; Unpaved parking areas; Common parking; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Not waterfront
• Home design: Duplex; Actual property condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation (other foundation type also listed)
• Exterior features: Mailbox; Corner lot; Front yard; Near public transit; Near schools; Near shops; Garage(s) on property

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 4-bedroom units
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Unfinished basement; Pull-down attic stairs

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 5-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $630k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $562/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $630k).
• Recommended offer: $611k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William A Carter School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 777 students, 76% FRL); Middletown Twin Towers Middle School (math 10% / reading 42%, grade F, #595 of 729 statewide, top 82%, 858 students, 78% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,015/mo this rent would consume 97% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1846% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $176k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $630k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1803 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $611,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1803 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.65%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $735,993
• List price: $630,000
• Delta: -14.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $6,727
• Equity at exit: $93,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $267,372
• Equity at exit: $54,471

Cash invested: $176,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,304
• Tax from tax record: −$851 /mo · $10,217/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,473
• Net cashflow: $1,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,592

Max offer price $630,000

Occupancy floor 79%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	5	2	$7,014
Total (2 units)			$7,015

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,500
• Closing costs: $18,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $630,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $630,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $630,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $630,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $630,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $630,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $630,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $630,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $630,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $630,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $630,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $630,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $630,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $630,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $630,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $630,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $630,000 Active 883-char remark
18. 2004-02-09
    soldstatus $225,000
19. 1988-11-30
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,217 · $851/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,432 · $869/mo
• Expected delta: +$215/yr (+$18/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,290
• − Property taxes: −$10,217
• − Insurance: −$3,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,734
• − Management: −$6,734
• − Depreciation: −$18,327
• Taxable income: $3,727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$894
• After-tax cash flow: $12,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+281.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $630,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,217 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.