406 Hill Dr · Bristol, VA 24201

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1945 Est $167k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly remodeled 3 bedroom two bath house with one car carport. Vinyl siding and hardwood floors all on one level. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen and new vanities and bathrooms. Great updated light fixtures and touches throughout.

Key facts

• Extra large lot
• Hardwood floors
• Parking

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EXTRA LARGE LOT
• MUD ROOM WITH LAUNDRY AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space) on concrete
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built with typical house construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Shingle roof; Steep slope lot; Lot per deed; Residential zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($669/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#140 in VA, #4,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol City Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #53 of 131 in VA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stonewall Jackson Elementary (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 254 students, 102% FRL); Virginia Middle (math 56% / reading 71%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 487 students, 101% FRL); Virginia High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 637 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 101% FRL vs 58% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15 units permitted in Bristol city in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bristol County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $195k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,101 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Crescent Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,098 (+5%)	8mo	$126,800	$115	72
815 Vernon St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,053 (+1%)	4mo	$193,700	$184	65
329 Magnolia Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	945 (-10%)	1mo	$144,000	$152	64
533 Spurgeon Ln	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-10%)	4mo	$150,000	$160	60
416 Randolph St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	962 (-8%)	2mo	$205,000	$213	59
340 Wagner Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,127 (+8%)	3mo	$120,000	$106	58
276 Spurgeon Ln	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	911 (-13%)	9mo	$60,000	$66	57
728 Randolph St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+6%)	5mo	$144,000	$130	55
2117 Westfield St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,069 (+2%)	9mo	$218,000	$204	52
401 Crockett St	0.59mi	3/1.0	912 (-13%)	6mo	$172,500	$189	42
146 Cades Aly	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	939 (-10%)	0mo	$182,000	$194	40
719 Vernon St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (+14%)	9mo	$180,000	$152	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,122
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,283
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24201

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $700/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $111	+0% $56	+5% $1	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-5	+0% $56	+5% $117	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $105	base $56	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Opal Ln Unit 4 Bristol, VA	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	23d	1	0.45mi
308 Emerald Dr Unit 308 Bristol, VA	2.0	1.5	970	$1,200	$1.24	45d	1	0.51mi
1156 Bristol View Dr Bristol, VA	2.0	2.5	1152	$1,650	$1.43	15d	2	0.61mi
1136 Moorland Ave Bristol, VA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,250	$1.34	45d	1	0.77mi
1216 Norway St Unit 102 Bristol, VA	2.0	1.0	1215	$1,600	$1.32	15d	1	0.84mi
1405 Newton St Bristol, VA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	15d	1	0.85mi
2505 Catherine St Bristol, VA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,600	$1.88	15d	1	1.03mi
2510 Catherine St Bristol, VA	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,500	$1.76	15d	1	1.06mi
145 Midway St Unit 1397968P Bristol, VA	3.0	2.0	1388	$5,335	$3.84	23d	1	1.19mi
2114 Broad St Bristol, TN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	15d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $194,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   remarks 171-char remark
10. 2026-06-10
    listed $194,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $700 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$898/yr (+$75/mo · 128.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$700
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$2,729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $1,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100450
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,978
• Composite: 52.4/100
• National rank: #1579
• State rank: #53 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #4544

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bristol, VA
• City population: 16,039
• Population (ZIP): 16,039

Population outlook (Bristol County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,113 people
• By 2030: 15,510 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 14,121 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 12,847 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 9,870 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,883 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 1% Iranian 0%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bristol

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.40%
• Current HPI: 196.2099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+549.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $194,900 TVRMLS
• 2018-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-24 Sold (MLS) $84,000 TVRMLS
• 2015-05-11 Listed $84,900 TVRMLS
• 2015-03-05 Sold (MLS) $26,000 TVRMLS
• 2014-12-11 Listed $29,900 TVRMLS
• 2001-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records