105 W Herndon Ave #3 · Fresno, CA 93650

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 2003 $114/sqft · 52% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2003, 2-bed, 2-bath, 1,584 sq ft manufactured home is ridiculously charmingand refreshingly spacious in all the right ways. A big, window-filled living room, an oversized primary bedroom, and a proper primary bath with a large walk-in closet mean nothing here feels undersized or improvised.The covered front porch sets the toneperfect for porch chairs, plants, and peaceful evenings. Built with 2x6 exterior walls, the home offers added substance where it counts, plus a large carport, a bonus secondary deck, and a shed for the things that don't belong in your living space.It's comfortable, cheerful, and effortlessly livablethe kind of home that feels good the moment you walk in.And when you're ready to venture out of your cozy bubble, River Park shopping and dining are just minutes away, putting convenience right where you want it.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Shed
• Large carport

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE CARPORT
• BONUS SECONDARY DECK
• SHED
• RIVER PARK SHOPPING AND DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.40%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,225
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: 52.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 W Herndon Ave #165	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-2%)	14mo	$162,500	$104	79
221 W Herndon Ave #80	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+2%)	14mo	$173,000	$107	78
221 W Herndon Ave #8	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	1mo	$95,000	$66	72
221 W Herndon Ave #9	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	1mo	$53,000	$37	70
221 W Herndon Ave #87	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	4mo	$119,000	$83	70
221 W Herndon #66	0.16mi	2/1.8 (-1)	1,488 (-6%)	8mo	$139,900	$94	70
221 W Herndon #37	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	7mo	$120,000	$83	65
221 W Herndon Ave #118	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	9mo	$139,500	$97	64
221 W Herndon Ave #71	0.17mi	2/1.8 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	8mo	$143,000	$99	64
221 W Herndon Ave #195	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	16mo	$115,000	$80	60
221 W Herndon Ave Spc 91	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-12%)	15mo	$120,000	$86	58
221 W Herndon Ave Unit SP 46	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	20mo	$100,000	$69	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $133,803
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $365,672
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93650

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $500/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,343

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 W Sierra Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1291	$2,500	$1.94	16d	1	0.42mi
135 E Stuart Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	3d	1	0.80mi
6075 N Poplar Ave Apt E Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	3d	1	0.84mi
6052 N College Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	44d	1	0.86mi
6549 N Palm Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,760	$1.60	2d	2	0.90mi
336 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.91mi
1055 W Fremont Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	2005	$2,150	$1.07	44d	1	0.93mi
6515 N Orchard St Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	16d	1	1.00mi
373 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,855	$2.14	3d	1	1.05mi
7579 N Angus St Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	24d	1	1.08mi
7580 N Angus St Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	44d	1	1.11mi
5544 N Poplar Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1868	$2,485	$1.33	44d	1	1.22mi
1249 W Spruce Ave Unit 1249 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,975	$1.58	10d	1	1.23mi
7511 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1078	$2,350	$2.18	2d	21	1.24mi
1271 W Spruce Ave Unit 1271 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,850	$1.48	10d	1	1.27mi
7675 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,830	$1.85	44d	1	1.35mi
5721 N Callisch Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1393	$1,950	$1.40	3d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-01-15
    listed $180,000 Active 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    This 2003, 2-bed, 2-bath, 1,584 sq ft manufactured home is ridiculously charmingand refreshingly spacious in all the right ways. A big, window-filled living room, an oversized primary bedroom, and a proper primary bath with a large walk-in closet mean nothing here feels undersized or improvised.The covered front porch sets the toneperfect for porch chairs, plants, and peaceful evenings. Built with 2x6 exterior walls, the home offers added substance where it counts, plus a large carport, a bonus secondary deck, and a shed for the things that don't belong in your living space.It's comfortable, cheerful, and effortlessly livablethe kind of home that feels good the moment you walk in.And when you're ready to venture out of your cozy bubble, River Park shopping and dining are just minutes away, putting convenience right where you want it.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$868/yr (+$72/mo · 173.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$500
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $3,996
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$959
• After-tax cash flow: $5,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 2,969

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 12% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.16%
• Current HPI: 547.5597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $180,000 FRESNOMLS