🏷️ Likely Rental
442 W 5th St · Elmira, NY
Flood risk 6/10 · Moderate
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.7%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 97°F)
- 8 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.4/10.0
$54,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Come see this cozy 1,272 +-, 2 - bedroom, 1 - bathroom home situated within walking distance to Elmira College, and Grove Park! Step inside and see the large living room that leads to the formal dining room. From there, the kitchen provides access to the basement and large mud-storage room. Head upstairs to find two generously sized bedrooms and the full bath. Outside, a secluded, fenced in yard is a great place to relax. Lastly a one car garage provides additional storage or a workshop space. Currently being used as a single-family rental with a long-term tenant, providing flexibility as an income property, or a full-time residence. Don't miss your chance to own this great property! Property being conveyed in "as-is" condition.
Key facts
- One car garage
- Formal dining room
- Access to basement
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
- Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
- Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $28k; list at $55k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.48% ✓
- Cap rate
- 20.17%
- Cash-on-cash
- 49.56%
- DSCR
- 3.21
- GRM
- 3.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $120,223
- List price
- $54,900
- Delta
- -54.33%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1002 Johnson St | 0.52mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,276 (+0%) | 8mo | $82,500 | $65 | 63 |
| 336 W Washington Ave | 0.32mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,344 (+6%) | 5mo | $119,900 | $89 | 62 |
| 347 Irvine Pl | 0.33mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,167 (-8%) | 5mo | $30,000 | $26 | 62 |
| 823 Canal St | 0.68mi | 2/— | 1,242 (-2%) | 8mo | $12,000 | $10 | 58 |
| 561 W Washington Ave | 0.27mi | 2/1.5 | 1,421 (+12%) | 10mo | $130,000 | $91 | 57 |
| 921 Grove St | 0.37mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,414 (+11%) | 5mo | $134,000 | $95 | 55 |
| 340 Webber Pl | 0.43mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,131 (-11%) | 9mo | $115,000 | $102 | 49 |
| 418 Tompkins St | 0.70mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,190 (-6%) | 4mo | $162,720 | $137 | 48 |
| 862 Magee St | 0.56mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,440 (+13%) | 1mo | $64,900 | $45 | 46 |
| 965 Wisner St | 0.66mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,358 (+7%) | 9mo | $20,000 | $15 | 45 |
| 410 Guinnip Ave | 0.72mi | 2/1.5 | 1,106 (-13%) | 7mo | $135,000 | $122 | 37 |
| 914 Magee St | 0.61mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,448 (+14%) | 10mo | $97,000 | $67 | 33 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 63.3%
- Equity multiple
- 5.58×
- Total profit
- $70,396
- Equity at exit
- $49,458
- IRR
- 56.8%
- Equity multiple
- 12.42×
- Total profit
- $175,623
- Equity at exit
- $106,659
Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 14901
- Home prices YoY
- 15.9%
- Active inventory
- 78
- Price-to-rent
- 3.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,363 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$288
- Tax from tax record
- −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
- Insurance
- −$23
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$286
- Net cashflow
- $635
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $13,725
- Closing costs
- $1,647
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 9 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 357 W Clinton St Unit 1 Elmira, NY | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1650 | $1,500 | $0.91 | 43d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 355 W Clinton St Unit 1 Elmira, NY | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1650 | $1,400 | $0.85 | 43d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 454 W 2nd St Unit 1 Elmira, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1400 | $1,000 | $0.71 | 43d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 970 Scio St Elmira, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 911 | $1,200 | $1.32 | 43d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1395 | $1,400 | $1.00 | 43d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1084 | $1,250 | $1.15 | 43d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 160 Boardman St Unit B Elmira, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1727 | $800 | $0.46 | 43d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,995 | $1.81 | 43d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 1210 W Water St Elmira, NY | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1340 | $1,995 | $1.49 | 43d | 1 | 1.44mi |
Listing history 27 events
-
2026-06-19days on market $54,900 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $54,900 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $54,900 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $54,900 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $54,900 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $54,900 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-13price $54,900 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $59,900 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $59,900 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $59,900 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $59,900 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $59,900 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $59,900 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $59,900 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $59,900 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $59,900 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $59,900 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-04-22$59,900 Active 748-char remark
Show marketing remark (748 chars)
Come see this cozy 1,272 +-, 2 - bedroom, 1 - bathroom home situated within walking distance to Elmira College, and Grove Park! Step inside and see the large living room that leads to the formal dining room. From there, the kitchen provides access to the basement and large mud-storage room. Head upstairs to find two generously sized bedrooms and the full bath. Outside, a secluded, fenced in yard is a great place to relax. Lastly a one car garage provides additional storage or a workshop space. Currently being used as a single-family rental with a long-term tenant, providing flexibility as an income property, or a full-time residence. Don't miss your chance to own this great property! Property being conveyed in "as-is" condition.
-
2014-05-23soldstatus $28,000
-
2010-02-03soldstatus $22,500
-
2010-02-01soldstatus $22,500 223-char remark
Show marketing remark (223 chars)
What a great deal for an investment or first time home buyer CHEAPER THAN PAYING RENT, Newer furnace & electric some newer windows, front porch, rear porch, fenced back yard, 1 car detached garage, was rented for $525
-
2009-09-07$24,900 223-char remark
Show marketing remark (223 chars)
What a great deal for an investment or first time home buyer CHEAPER THAN PAYING RENT, Newer furnace & electric some newer windows, front porch, rear porch, fenced back yard, 1 car detached garage, was rented for $525
-
2006-07-23historical
-
2006-01-23$32,500
-
2001-11-02soldstatus $25,750
-
2001-11-02soldstatus $25,750
-
2000-10-16$28,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,577 · $131/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,577 · $131/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 70% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $16,361
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,075
- − Property taxes
- −$1,577
- − Insurance
- −$274
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,309
- − Management
- −$1,309
- − Depreciation
- −$1,597
- Taxable income
- $7,219
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,733
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,886/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Elmira City School District
- NCES district ID
- 3610560
- Math proficiency
- 23% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 35% ▲ 7.00%
- Median HH income
- $40,180
- Composite
- 24.39/100
- National rank
- #7688
- State rank
- #580 of 590 in NY
Livability — Elmira
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #832
- US rank
- #16139
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Elmira, NY
- City population
- 14,276
- Population (ZIP)
- 14,430
Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 82,931 people
- By 2030
- 80,356 · -3.1%
- By 2040
- 74,745 · -9.9%
- By 2050
- 69,012 · -16.8%
- By 2075
- 55,689 · -32.8%
- By 2100
- 41,428 · -50.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (70%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Chemung
- 2024 margin
- R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 32.34%
- Current HPI
- 236.2674
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
|
||
| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
||
| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
|
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
|
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Price history
+113.9% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-22 Listed $59,900 UNYREIS
- 2014-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
- 2010-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records
- 2010-02-01 Sold (MLS) $22,500 UNYREIS
- 2009-09-07 Listed $24,900 UNYREIS
- 2006-07-23 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
- 2006-01-23 Listed $32,500 UNYREIS
- 2001-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,750 Public Records
- 2001-11-02 Sold (MLS) $25,750 UNYREIS
- 2000-10-16 Listed $28,000 UNYREIS
Property tax history
+7.6%/yrLatest (2025): $1,577 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…