1615 Gilletts Lake Rd · Michigan Center, MI 49201

$149,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1920 0.59 ac lot Est $296k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Have you ever watched a home renovation show and thought, ''I could do that?'' Well, here's your chance to prove it! This 2-3 bedroom, 1-bath home sits on just over half an acre and is ready for someone with imagination, determination, and possibly a very large toolbox. While the property needs extensive remodeling, it offers plenty of potential for the right buyer willing to roll up their sleeves and create something specialOutside, you'll find a detached 2-car pole barn-style garage, providing excellent storage for vehicles, projects, toys, or all the supplies you'll need for your next renovation adventure. Location is a definite plus! Enjoy being just minutes from beautiful Gilletts Lake and conveniently situated for commuters with easy access to I-94 and US-127.Whether you're an investor, handyman, flipper, or someone looking to build sweat equity, this property could be the opportunity you've been waiting for. Sold as-is. Potential included at no extra charge!

Key facts

• Easy access to i 94
• 0.59 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• MINUTES FROM GILLETTS LAKE
• EASY ACCESS TO I 94
• EASY ACCESS TO US 127

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Natural gas connected
• Home design: Tudor-style single-family home; Built in 1920; Approximately 1,636 living area
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Well water; Lot of about 0.59 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.0% in Michigan Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#314 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Michigan Center School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #387 of 540 in MI (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.11%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,116
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Macdonough Ave	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,822 (+11%)	14mo	$329,900	$181	53
520 Douglass Ct	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,822 (+11%)	14mo	$330,050	$181	52
525 Douglass Ct	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,822 (+11%)	14mo	$330,050	$181	50
519 Macdonough Street St	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,822 (+11%)	22mo	$299,900	$165	46
5225 Pine Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (-14%)	1mo	$382,000	$273	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $599
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $62,099
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49201

• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,968/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5420 E Michigan Ave Jackson, MI	3.0	2.0	2220	$2,150	$0.97	44d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,968 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,968 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,968
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$163
• After-tax cash flow: $2,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Michigan Center School District
• NCES district ID: 2623790
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,224
• Composite: 24.11/100
• National rank: #7753
• State rank: #387 of 540 in MI

Livability — Michigan Center

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 85,581 people
• City population: 85,581
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 49,107
• Household income: $74,484
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.89%
• Current HPI: 185.3773
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.32%
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-16 Listed $149,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-11 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-11 Sold (MLS) $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-03 Listed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-03 Listed $134,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,968 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.