25529 Farmers Crop Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$294,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 6,229 sqft lot $185/sqft · at area comps Est $305k · at est. $95/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW COMMUNITY, NOW SELLING! ESTIMATED COMPLETION JUNE. The Caden is one of our premier one-story floorplans featured in our Briarwood community in Elgin, Texas. With 1,595 square feet of comfortable living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed to perfectly accommodate the needs of any family. Your journey begins at the welcoming front porch, which leads you into a bright foyer. Immediately off the entryway, you’ll find two spacious secondary bedrooms and a full secondary bathroom, providing a private wing for children, guests, or a home office. Continuing into the heart of the home, the space opens up into a stunning open-concept design. Large windows in the living room f

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Large windows
• Bright foyer

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• BRIGHT FOYER
• PRIVATE WING
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• CHEF'S DELIGHT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Briarwood); Monthly HOA fee of $95.83 covering common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-facing garage; 2 covered parking spaces (garage)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; High-speed internet available; Public water (Municipal Utility District); Public sewer (Municipal Utility District); Underground utilities
• Home design: One-story; New construction by DR HORTON; Faces northeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Rain gutters; Back yard fencing; Sprinklers (front, rear, side, in-ground, automatic, rain sensor); Landscaped yard; Small trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms; Main level primary
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; Smart home; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-539 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,851 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.83%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,898
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: -3.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25632 Wheat Seed Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	0mo	$299,999	$179	81
25641 Flora Bella Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	2mo	$299,999	$179	78
13701 Scarlett Song Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+8%)	1mo	$299,999	$174	76
13817 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+9%)	3mo	$326,700	$189	74
101 Bandera Woods Blvd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-6%)	0mo	$254,000	$169	71
13605 Barn Chime St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+1%)	2mo	$289,990	$180	68
13512 Muny Pkwy	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	3mo	$289,990	$176	58
13500 Barn Chime St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	3mo	$274,990	$167	58
18309 Rock Sage Cv	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,766 (+11%)	2mo	$279,900	$158	45
13708 Sierra Wind Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,833 (+15%)	1mo	$254,999	$139	43
709 Lavaca Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-14%)	2mo	$245,000	$178	41
19012 Speculator Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+12%)	3mo	$255,000	$142	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $126,664
• Equity at exit: $265,750

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $400,674
• Equity at exit: $573,101

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,701

Max offer price $216,998

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.38mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.49mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	0.57mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.58mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.58mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.60mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.62mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.65mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	23d	1	0.67mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	0.67mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.69mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.71mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.71mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.75mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.75mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	0.75mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	19d	1	0.80mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.81mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.81mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	1d	1	0.84mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.90mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.91mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.93mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	1.00mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	1.04mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	1d	1	1.05mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	1.11mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	1.11mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	1.18mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	1.21mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	1.27mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	1.29mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	1.29mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	1.31mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	23d	1	1.33mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	1d	1	1.38mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	1.45mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $294,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $294,990 1850-char remark
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $304,990 Active 1850-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$11,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $294,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $304,990 Unlock MLS