18 A Suwannee Dr · Laguna Beach, FL 32461

$553,516

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $622k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing The Villas at Longleaf Park, a Watersound Origins community with paired villas built by Fischer Homes! One of the most appealing aspects of The Villas at Longleaf Park is the low-maintenance lifestyle - as a member of the HOA, all lawn maintenance and home exterior maintenance (pressure washing, exterior painting, etc. ) is taken care of for you! You'll enjoy a beautifully manicured lawn as well as access to some of the best community amenities including the Origins Golf Course, Village Commons with resort-style pool, sports courts, access to Lake Powell, and much more. The ANFIELD plan includes some exceptional features such as luxury vinyl plank flooring in main living areas,

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Resort style pool
• Origins golf course

Tags

• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• ORIGINS GOLF COURSE
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• SPORTS COURTS
• ACCESS TO LAKE POWELL
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $553,516

Exterior

• Parking: Detached/attached 2 parking spaces (2-car garage indicated)
• Home design: Single-family spec home — Plan name: Anfield; Active listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,442 (listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $554k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-819 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $435k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 710 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $380,567 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $621,502
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Bunting Ln Lot 71	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,450 (+1%)	9mo	$625,000	$431	84
141 Green Heron St Lot 66	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	4mo	$646,650	$415	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $46,352
• Equity at exit: $282,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $200,767
• Equity at exit: $463,966

Cash invested: $154,984 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32461

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,903
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$692 /mo · $8,303/yr
• Insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$799
• Net cashflow: $-819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,842

Max offer price $435,042

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,379
• Closing costs: $16,605
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
323 Suwannee Dr Unit 72A Inlet Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$4,000	$2.77	20d	1	0.14mi
323 Suwannee Dr Inlet Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$3,500	$2.43	13d	1	0.16mi
40 Blue Stream Way Inlet Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,342	$2.39	13d	11	0.93mi
48 E Lafayette Rd Inlet Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,700	$2.18	13d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $553,516 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $553,516 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $553,516 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $553,516 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $553,516 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $553,516 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $553,516 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $553,516 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $553,516 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $553,516 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,006
• − Property taxes: −$8,303
• − Insurance: −$2,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,653
• − Management: −$3,653
• − Depreciation: −$16,102
• Taxable loss: −$19,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Laguna Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #4522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,757
• Household income: $145,706
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 67.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Current HPI: 346.4019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B