4101 Desert Cove Cir · Vander, NC 28312

$300,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2005 0.47 ac lot Est $344k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Major $20K price improvement! This beautiful Fayetteville home just became one of the best values in the area. Spacious layout, large lot, and located on a quiet cul-de-sac. Seller is motivated and reviewing offers. Schedule your showing today before this opportunity is gone. Welcome to this gorgeous home, ideally situated at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in one of Fayetteville's most desirable communities--with no HOA and city water and sewer. Built in 2005, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence with a bonus room offers almost 2,000 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on nearly half an acre. The light-filled, open-concept layout features soaring vaulted and coffered ceilings,

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• City water and sewer
• No hoa

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• NO HOA
• CITY WATER AND SEWER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COZY PROPANE FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM BLINDS AND SHUTTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Vander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#645 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $255k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,305 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,578
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
716 Baywood Rd	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,911 (-4%)	23mo	$329,900	$173	65
917 Satinwood Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-7%)	15mo	$314,900	$170	42
845 Satinwood Ct	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,182 (+10%)	14mo	$375,000	$172	41
948 Satinwood Ct	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,237 (+13%)	13mo	$400,000	$179	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $143,778
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $438,607
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $245,825

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4066 Hummingbird Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,650	$1.25	23d	1	0.65mi
903 Penguin Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	21d	1	1.13mi
4211 Cherry Hill Ln Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,145	$0.92	13d	1	1.34mi
4243 Cinder Ln Fayetteville, NC	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,085	$0.97	13d	1	1.43mi
4233 Pleasantburg Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	2252	$2,300	$1.02	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   price $300,000
3. 2026-01-22
   listed $320,000 Active
4. 2023-06-22
   listed $320,000 Active
5. 2023-05-01
   listed $320,000 Active
6. 2023-04-26
   listed $325,000 Active
7. 2021-08-19
   soldstatus $255,000
8. 2021-08-19
   soldstatus $255,000
9. 2021-07-01
   listed $250,000
10. 2020-05-14
    soldstatus $160,000
11. 2020-05-14
    soldstatus $160,000
12. 2020-01-06
    listed $149,500
13. 2020-01-06
    listed $149,500
14. 2011-03-15
    soldstatus $195,000
15. 2011-03-15
    soldstatus $195,000
16. 2011-01-18
    listed $194,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,385 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Vander

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #23450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+54.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $300,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $320,000 TMLS
• 2023-06-22 Listed $320,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-05-01 Listed $320,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-04-26 Listed $325,000 LPRMLS
• 2021-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-19 Sold (MLS) $255,000 LPRMLS
• 2021-07-01 Listed $250,000 LPRMLS
• 2020-05-14 Sold (MLS) $160,000 TMLS
• 2020-05-14 Sold (MLS) $160,000 LPRMLS
• 2020-01-06 Listed $149,500 TMLS
• 2020-01-06 Listed $149,500 LPRMLS
• 2011-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-15 Sold (MLS) $195,000 TMLS
• 2011-01-18 Listed $194,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,385 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.