1820 Wax Rd · Big Clifty, KY 42726

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 2018 3.24 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Country living
• Quiet rural setting

Tags

• COUNTRY LIVING
• DOUBLEWIDE HOME
• STOCKED POND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• QUIET RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Big Clifty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#516 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Grayson County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #84 of 165 in KY (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,181 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $90,495
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $276,075
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42726

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,074/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,468

Max offer price $154,695

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-25
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 793-char remark

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

2. 2026-02-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

3. 2026-02-23
   status Pending 793-char remark

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

4. 2026-01-18
   price $189,000

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

5. 2026-01-18
   price $189,000 793-char remark

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

6. 2025-12-29
   price $198,000 793-char remark

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

7. 2025-12-29
   price $198,000

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

8. 2025-12-18
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

9. 2025-12-18
   listed $200,000 Active 793-char remark

   Show marketing remark (793 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this 2018 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom doublewide home set on 3.24 beautiful acres. This property offers plenty of space to spread out and enjoy the outdoors, complete with a stocked pond perfect for relaxing afternoons of fishing or simply taking in the view. The home features a spacious open floor plan, combining the living, dining, and kitchen areas for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms and a second full bath provide plenty of space for guests. Located in a quiet rural setting, this property offers privacy and tranquility while still being just a short drive from local amenities and Nolin Lake. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a small homestead.

10. 2025-12-01
    status Pending
11. 2025-11-21
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 51.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,074
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$5,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,389
• After-tax cash flow: $-941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grayson County
• NCES district ID: 2102300
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $34,256
• Composite: 27.55/100
• National rank: #6944
• State rank: #84 of 165 in KY

Livability — Big Clifty

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #516
• US rank: #26413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,025

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,840 people
• By 2030: 27,032 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 27,236 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 27,076 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 26,565 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 24,007 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.5% · R 80.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 141.71%
• Current HPI: 470.743
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $189,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $189,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $198,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $198,000 HKARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Relisted — HKARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $200,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-01 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $200,000 HKARMLS

Property tax history

+41.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,074 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.