416 Caribbean Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$289,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · Land · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 7,000 sqft lot $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The seller owns 12 lots in Poinciana, several on the same street, which can be PURCHASED IN BULK, presenting a rare opportunity for builders or investors to secure multiple parcels at once at a discounted rate. MLS Numbers: O6335500, O6335683, O6335689, O6335698, O6335703, O6335706, O6335716, O6335719, O6335726, O6335730, O6335755. This lot at 416 Caribbean features minimal large trees, providing a canvas ready for your next project. With utilities recently added to this street, it has seen a boom in new home construction over the last year. The low HOA fee includes access to the Poinciana Victory Pool, Aquatic Center with 8 lap lanes, and the APV Community Center featuring event rooms, an amphitheater, a fitness center, and expansive outdoor recreation with sports fields, basketball courts, playgrounds, picnic areas, and walking trails. High-speed internet (300 Mbps) and cable TV (250+ channels) are also included. The lot is conveniently located near shopping centers and restaurants. It’s a short drive to Disney, SeaWorld, Universal Studios, Legoland, and Orlando International Airport, offering both lifestyle and convenience. This lot is perfect for new construction or long-term investment. With low HOA fees, abundant amenities, and strong area growth, these Poinciana lots provide unmatched opportunity for builders, investors, or future homeowners.

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinets
• Fully fenced
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• FULLY FENCED
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• INCLUDED UPGRADES
• VAULTED CEILING
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.16 acres (paved road); Living area about 1,638 (builder provided); total building area about 1,658; Lot area listed as approximately 650 square meters
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA (APV) with a required monthly fee of $35; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Completed condition; One story; Faces north; New construction
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,630 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,686
• Equity at exit: $63,398

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-81,017
• Equity at exit: $61,098

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $231,143

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Amberjack Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,750	$1.41	23d	1	0.19mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,100	$1.30	3d	1	0.29mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	23d	1	0.29mi
1364 Congo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	3d	1	0.52mi
1406 Orlando Pl Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,450	$1.15	3d	1	0.56mi
1243 Amazon Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,835	$1.16	3d	1	0.58mi
610 Alafia Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	23d	1	0.58mi
1417 Kissimmee Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,629	$1.06	23d	1	0.83mi
1402 Kissimmee Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	21d	1	0.92mi
1701 Pilchard Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,050	$1.19	23d	1	1.08mi
1658 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,810	$1.09	3d	1	1.08mi
1660 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,975	$1.19	3d	1	1.09mi
1662 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1852	$1,940	$1.05	23d	1	1.10mi
303 Shad Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1930	$1,999	$1.04	23d	1	1.12mi
301 Shad Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,000	$0.94	21d	1	1.13mi
1630 Tench Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1944	$1,995	$1.03	3d	1	1.13mi
1731 Minnow Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,750	$1.45	23d	1	1.20mi
1613 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$1,625	$0.95	23d	1	1.20mi
1637 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,720	$1.38	3d	1	1.24mi
459 Rio Grande Ln Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,745	$0.87	23d	1	1.25mi
223 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,595	$1.08	23d	1	1.26mi
116 Sail Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,805	$1.09	11d	1	1.30mi
1707 Sail Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,015	$1.11	3d	1	1.34mi
205 Dogfish Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,680	$1.06	13d	1	1.35mi
241 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	1.36mi
352 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	23d	1	1.37mi
202 Snapper Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,050	$1.23	3d	1	1.42mi
1884 Snapper Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1682	$1,985	$1.18	14d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablelandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   price $289,990
3. 2026-04-08
   status Active
4. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-17
   price $294,990
6. 2026-03-03
   listed $299,990 Active
7. 2025-09-12
   soldstatus $310,000
8. 2025-09-04
   soldstatus $38,750 Closed 1377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1377 chars)

   The seller owns 12 lots in Poinciana, several on the same street, which can be PURCHASED IN BULK, presenting a rare opportunity for builders or investors to secure multiple parcels at once at a discounted rate. MLS Numbers: O6335500, O6335683, O6335689, O6335698, O6335703, O6335706, O6335716, O6335719, O6335726, O6335730, O6335755. This lot at 416 Caribbean features minimal large trees, providing a canvas ready for your next project. With utilities recently added to this street, it has seen a boom in new home construction over the last year. The low HOA fee includes access to the Poinciana Victory Pool, Aquatic Center with 8 lap lanes, and the APV Community Center featuring event rooms, an amphitheater, a fitness center, and expansive outdoor recreation with sports fields, basketball courts, playgrounds, picnic areas, and walking trails. High-speed internet (300 Mbps) and cable TV (250+ channels) are also included. The lot is conveniently located near shopping centers and restaurants. It’s a short drive to Disney, SeaWorld, Universal Studios, Legoland, and Orlando International Airport, offering both lifestyle and convenience. This lot is perfect for new construction or long-term investment. With low HOA fees, abundant amenities, and strong area growth, these Poinciana lots provide unmatched opportunity for builders, investors, or future homeowners.

9. 2025-08-20
   status Pending 1377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1377 chars)

   The seller owns 12 lots in Poinciana, several on the same street, which can be PURCHASED IN BULK, presenting a rare opportunity for builders or investors to secure multiple parcels at once at a discounted rate. MLS Numbers: O6335500, O6335683, O6335689, O6335698, O6335703, O6335706, O6335716, O6335719, O6335726, O6335730, O6335755. This lot at 416 Caribbean features minimal large trees, providing a canvas ready for your next project. With utilities recently added to this street, it has seen a boom in new home construction over the last year. The low HOA fee includes access to the Poinciana Victory Pool, Aquatic Center with 8 lap lanes, and the APV Community Center featuring event rooms, an amphitheater, a fitness center, and expansive outdoor recreation with sports fields, basketball courts, playgrounds, picnic areas, and walking trails. High-speed internet (300 Mbps) and cable TV (250+ channels) are also included. The lot is conveniently located near shopping centers and restaurants. It’s a short drive to Disney, SeaWorld, Universal Studios, Legoland, and Orlando International Airport, offering both lifestyle and convenience. This lot is perfect for new construction or long-term investment. With low HOA fees, abundant amenities, and strong area growth, these Poinciana lots provide unmatched opportunity for builders, investors, or future homeowners.

10. 2025-08-14
    listed $34,999 Active 1377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1377 chars)

    The seller owns 12 lots in Poinciana, several on the same street, which can be PURCHASED IN BULK, presenting a rare opportunity for builders or investors to secure multiple parcels at once at a discounted rate. MLS Numbers: O6335500, O6335683, O6335689, O6335698, O6335703, O6335706, O6335716, O6335719, O6335726, O6335730, O6335755. This lot at 416 Caribbean features minimal large trees, providing a canvas ready for your next project. With utilities recently added to this street, it has seen a boom in new home construction over the last year. The low HOA fee includes access to the Poinciana Victory Pool, Aquatic Center with 8 lap lanes, and the APV Community Center featuring event rooms, an amphitheater, a fitness center, and expansive outdoor recreation with sports fields, basketball courts, playgrounds, picnic areas, and walking trails. High-speed internet (300 Mbps) and cable TV (250+ channels) are also included. The lot is conveniently located near shopping centers and restaurants. It’s a short drive to Disney, SeaWorld, Universal Studios, Legoland, and Orlando International Airport, offering both lifestyle and convenience. This lot is perfect for new construction or long-term investment. With low HOA fees, abundant amenities, and strong area growth, these Poinciana lots provide unmatched opportunity for builders, investors, or future homeowners.

11. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus $25,000
12. 2004-03-12
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$10,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5699.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $289,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $294,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-04 Sold (MLS) $38,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Listed $34,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $323 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.