610 S Mill St · Wolfe City, TX 75496

$229,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,831 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1987 10,585 sqft lot Est $302k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a prime corner lot! Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting living area with a wood-burning fireplace, plus a private office ideal for working from home. The kitchen is both functional and stylish, complete with a custom pantry. A spacious 2-car garage adds convenience, while the location in the award-winning Wolfe City ISD makes this home an exceptional find.

Key facts

• Private office
• Custom pantry
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE OFFICE
• CUSTOM PANTRY
• AWARD-WINNING WOLFE CITY ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Wolfe City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,280 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wolfe City ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #254 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wolfe City El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 347 students, 62% FRL); Wolfe City Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 152 students, 56% FRL); Wolfe City H S (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 221 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,115
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 S Mill St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,831 (0%)	1mo	$229,900	$126	95
308 Santa Fe	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-13%)	1mo	$219,000	$137	59
815 Nob Hl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-6%)	22mo	$289,000	$167	57
704 Witt	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,669 (-9%)	12mo	$274,900	$165	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $109,142
• Equity at exit: $207,112

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $334,124
• Equity at exit: $446,645

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75496

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,532/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $185,252

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-123	-5% $-188	+0% $-253	+5% $-318	+10% $-383
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-320	+0% $-253	+5% $-186	+10% $-118
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-194	base $-253	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 E Witt St Wolfe City, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,700	$1.13	0d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $229,900 Active
3. 1987-04-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,532 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,207 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$675/yr (+$56/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,532
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$7,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,707
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wolfe City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846350
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,926
• Composite: 38.98/100
• National rank: #4074
• State rank: #254 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfe City

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #22142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfe City, TX
• City population: 3,066
• Population (ZIP): 3,066

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 61.17%
• Current HPI: 289.6633
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $229,900 NTREIS
• 1987-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,532 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.