12206 County Road 37497 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$299,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,001 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 0.50 ac lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of space, style, and southern charm with this stunning new construction home, currently under construction on a sprawling 0.5-acre lot. The thoughtfully designed "Redwood" floor plan offers an expansive 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, making it an ideal sanctuary for those who value room to grow. Step inside to the sophisticated interior, elevated by a premium upgrade trim package that includes elegant pendant lighting, ceiling fans, custom blinds, and a stylish backsplash. Located in the serene Southern Crossing community and served by the Cleveland ISD, this home offers the peace of the countryside without sacrificing accessibility. This rare opportunity i

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Southern Crossing HOA; Annual association fee of $180; HOA covers common areas and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport with 2 spaces; Driveway; Additional parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Community security amenity
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Faces north; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Built by Integrity Land Development; Full ownership
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Backs to greenbelt/park; Cleared lot; Side yard; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — approx. 16'4" x 12'7"; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 11'7" x 12'7"; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 11'9" x 12'7"; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 10'3" x 12'7"; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 10'1" x 12'7"; Den (first floor) — approx. 15'0" x 12'7"
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); HVAC energy-efficient component
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Laminate counters; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $299,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $194,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-160/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (40.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,119 (40.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,900
• List price: $299,999
• Delta: 53.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-30,534
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,746
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,808

Max offer price $192,971

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $54	+0% $-13	+5% $-81	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-84	+0% $-13	+5% $57	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $36	base $-13	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,999 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,999 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,999 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,999 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $299,999 Active 904-char remark
16. 2026-05-14
    historical $299,999 904-char remark
17. 2023-08-16
    historical
18. 2023-03-06
    listed $82,000 Active
19. 2021-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$3,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+265.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $299,999 HARMLS
• 2023-08-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Listed $82,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $587 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.