Cresthaven Model — Open House Move-in Ready Plan · Washington, DC 20007

$3,288,888

7 bd · 7.5 ba · 7,142 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Modern Farmhouse | 7 BR | 7.5 BA | 7,100 SF | Burning Tree, Bethesda Open House Saturday & Sunday 1-4 PM → 7601maryknoll.com Walk the backyard and you'll swear it's two acres. It isn't - but your eyes won't believe it. Flat lot. Privacy on three sides. Nearly 300 new trees forming a buffer you'd swear took decades to grow. One of the rarest settings left in Burning Tree. Inside: 7,100 square feet of custom modern farmhouse. Seven bedrooms. Seven and a half baths. A first-floor suite for guests, parents, or the life you haven't planned for yet. A screened porch with a wood-burning fireplace that extends the season on both ends. Flagstone patio beyond.

Key facts

• Flat lot
• Screened porch
• Flagstone patio

Tags

• FLAT LOT
• PRIVACY ON THREE SIDES
• SCREENED PORCH
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FLAGSTONE PATIO
• CUSTOM MODERN FARMHOUSE

🏗️ New construction. The $3,288,888 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $3,495,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/7.5-bath single-family listed at $3.29M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20k ($-246k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $533k (83.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $466k (85.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $466k (85.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.7% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Es (353 students, 0% FRL); Hardy Ms (571 students, 0% FRL); Jackson-Reed Hs (2,153 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 617 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 104d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $465,956 (85.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.13% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.10%
• DSCR: -0.12
• GRM: 62.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,495,000
• List price: $3,288,888
• Delta: -5.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1610 Foxhall Rd NW	0.23mi	7/7.0	6,770 (-5%)	15mo	$3,415,500	$505	66
1669 31st St NW	1.04mi	7/8.0	7,269 (+2%)	8mo	$5,995,000	$825	53
4565 Indian Rock Ter NW	0.37mi	6/6.5 (-1)	6,102 (-15%)	6mo	$3,495,000	$573	44
2155 Dunmore Ln NW	0.64mi	7/8.0	8,293 (+16%)	2mo	$6,940,000	$837	42
2101 Foxhall Rd NW	0.73mi	6/5.5 (-1)	6,600 (-8%)	1mo	$4,250,000	$644	39
2335 40th St NW Unit 2	0.91mi	7/6.5	6,728 (-6%)	15mo	$1,950,000	$290	39
2215 King Pl NW	1.10mi	7/7.0	8,143 (+14%)	5mo	$3,500,000	$430	36
2005 48th St NW	0.91mi	6/5.5 (-1)	6,930 (-3%)	16mo	$3,600,000	$519	34
1671 31st St NW	1.03mi	6/5.5 (-1)	6,300 (-12%)	4mo	$6,525,000	$1,036	29
1829 47th Pl NW	0.57mi	6/5.5 (-1)	5,741 (-20%)	8mo	$2,600,000	$453	28
2812 24th St N	1.00mi	6/7.0 (-1)	8,276 (+16%)	6mo	$4,548,718	$550	28
1923 N Vance St	0.90mi	6/6.5 (-1)	5,773 (-19%)	11mo	$2,350,000	$407	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -74.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.92×
• Total profit: $-1,883,804
• Equity at exit: $521,116

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.45×
• Total profit: $-3,371,823
• Equity at exit: $302,184

Cash invested: $978,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 68.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $3,288,888 ($518/sqft)
• Median days on market: 16 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 20007

• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 617
• Price-to-rent: 58.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,369 /mo · $52,425/yr
• Insurance: −$1,456
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$979
• Net cashflow: $-20,472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $30,574

Max offer price $532,654

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18,057	-5% $-19,264	+0% $-20,472	+5% $-21,680	+10% $-22,887
Rent	-10% $-20,840	-5% $-20,656	+0% $-20,472	+5% $-20,288	+10% $-20,104
Rate	-1.0pp $-18,712	-0.5pp $-19,583	base $-20,472	+0.5pp $-21,378	+1.0pp $-22,299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $873,750
• Closing costs: $104,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1525 35th St NW Washington, DC	7.0	7.0	6777	$14,000	$2.07	103d	1	0.66mi
1650 Avon Pl NW Washington, DC	8.0	1.0–6.0	10180	$14,663	$1.44	56d	123	1.09mi
2715 N St NW Washington, DC	7.0	7.5	5416	$26,000	$4.80	111d	1	1.33mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$195,774
• − Property taxes: −$52,425
• − Insurance: −$17,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,473
• − Management: −$4,473
• − Depreciation: −$101,673
• Taxable loss: −$320,379
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$76,891
• After-tax cash flow: $-168,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready modern farmhouse in Bethesda, MD, offers 7 bedrooms, 7.5 bathrooms, and 7,100 square feet of living space. The home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and patio area — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern amenities. ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant impact on the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Rental Install smart thermostat — Attracts renters who value energy efficiency and smart home technology. ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Key Es Middle Hardy Ms High Luke C. Moore Hs

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 821,926 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 24,602
• Household income: $140,996
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -546.63%
• Current HPI: 328.1991
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.85%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B