21248 Seminole St · Lockhart, AL 36442

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 1910 Fair condition 0.34 ac lot $64/sqft · 14% below area Est $163k · 14% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic 1910 2 story charming 3/1 house on a generous shaded corner lot with a large fenced-in yard, perfect for outdoor activities with the family, or just enjoying the peace and quiet. Home features a brand-new tankless water heater, new HVAC, new mini-split units upstairs. Has new gas lines under house, and the roof is less than 10 years old. Portion of the house has tongue and groove walls, other are paneling. French doors and all the charm are still in place. Home welcomes you with custom fence, covering trees and large covered porch great for afternoon relaxing. Attached carport, lots of flowering shrubs to enjoy plus Elliott pecan trees. 1 block over from town playground and park, located near beautiful Lake Jackson and Florala HS as well as Elementary school. Home is full of charm!

Key facts

• Shaded corner lot
• Large fenced-in yard
• New hvac

Tags

• SHADED CORNER LOT
• LARGE FENCED-IN YARD
• NEW HVAC
• NEW MINI-SPLIT UNITS
• NEW GAS LINES
• ROOF LESS THAN 10 YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-453/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#183 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Covington County (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #32 of 129 in AL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ws Harlan Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 331 students, 72% FRL); Straughn Middle School (math 35% / reading 62%, grade C-, #28 of 257 statewide, top 11%, 318 students, 65% FRL); Florala High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 218 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,608 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,181
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -14.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21249 Cherokee Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	2,024 (-7%)	3mo	$65,000	$32	82
21220 Cherokee Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,344 (+8%)	2mo	$225,000	$96	78
21904 Rappahannock Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,148 (-1%)	14mo	$189,900	$88	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $21,799
• Equity at exit: $70,703

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $72,324
• Equity at exit: $115,460

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36442

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $134,443

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $11	+0% $-38	+5% $-86	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-84	+0% $-38	+5% $9	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-2	base $-38	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Classic 1910 2 story charming 3/1 house on a generous shaded corner lot with a large fenced-in yard, perfect for outdoor activities with the family, or just enjoying the peace and quiet. Home features a brand-new tankless water heater, new HVAC, new mini-split units upstairs. Has new gas lines under house, and the roof is less than 10 years old. Portion of the house has tongue and groove walls, other are paneling. French doors and all the charm are still in place. Home welcomes you with custom fence, covering trees and large covered porch great for afternoon relaxing. Attached carport, lots of flowering shrubs to enjoy plus Elliott pecan trees. 1 block over from town playground and park, located near beautiful Lake Jackson and Florala HS as well as Elementary school. Home is full of charm!

19. 2026-04-27
    price $139,900 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Classic 1910 2 story charming 3/1 house on a generous shaded corner lot with a large fenced-in yard, perfect for outdoor activities with the family, or just enjoying the peace and quiet. Home features a brand-new tankless water heater, new HVAC, new mini-split units upstairs. Has new gas lines under house, and the roof is less than 10 years old. Portion of the house has tongue and groove walls, other are paneling. French doors and all the charm are still in place. Home welcomes you with custom fence, covering trees and large covered porch great for afternoon relaxing. Attached carport, lots of flowering shrubs to enjoy plus Elliott pecan trees. 1 block over from town playground and park, located near beautiful Lake Jackson and Florala HS as well as Elementary school. Home is full of charm!

20. 2026-04-08
    listed $159,900 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Classic 1910 2 story charming 3/1 house on a generous shaded corner lot with a large fenced-in yard, perfect for outdoor activities with the family, or just enjoying the peace and quiet. Home features a brand-new tankless water heater, new HVAC, new mini-split units upstairs. Has new gas lines under house, and the roof is less than 10 years old. Portion of the house has tongue and groove walls, other are paneling. French doors and all the charm are still in place. Home welcomes you with custom fence, covering trees and large covered porch great for afternoon relaxing. Attached carport, lots of flowering shrubs to enjoy plus Elliott pecan trees. 1 block over from town playground and park, located near beautiful Lake Jackson and Florala HS as well as Elementary school. Home is full of charm!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$684
• After-tax cash flow: $231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Peeling wallpaper — Significant damage to interior walls
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Peeling wallpaper · Significant damage to interior walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County
• NCES district ID: 0100930
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,213
• Composite: 32.13/100
• National rank: #5797
• State rank: #32 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #15412

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, AL
• City population: 284
• Population (ZIP): 3,615

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,007 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 34,983 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 33,437 · -9.6%
• By 2075: 29,753 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 25,109 · -32.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.4) · D 13.6% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.3pp · 2024: -72.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.4 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+58.3 2008: R+58.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Current HPI: 182.2844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $139,900 ECAR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $159,900 ECAR