563 Ayrshire Way · Newport News, VA 23602

$120,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,068 sqft · Condo public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hello! Address- 563 Ayrshire Way C Newport News, Va 23602 1,326 square footage I& apos; m selling this unit 3-bedrooms , 2- bathrooms- first floor condo- HOA fee is-$450( water, garbage, yard maintenance, termite, roofing etc is included!) A few upgrades- 1: 3 year old Ac units- 2: windows and triple French doors. 4: new kitchen faucet and modern light. 5: matching kitchen and bathroom cabinets- 6 reset lights added to living room and bathrooms- 7: 3 year entire house new plumbing- 8: 3 year whole house rewired- 9: Added marble fireplace with surrounding Mable with front hearth . 10: uptown Newport News 11: great schools. ?? 12: great community. 13: newly Kolher top flush toilets

Key facts

• 3 year old ac units
• Marble fireplace
• First floor condo

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CONDO
• 3 YEAR OLD AC UNITS
• NEW KITCHEN FAUCET
• RESET LIGHTS ADDED
• 3 YEAR WHOLE HOUSE REWIRED
• MARBLE FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1974
• Construction: 1974 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Central Newport News subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kiln Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 618 students, 93% FRL); Ella J. Fitzgerald Middle (math 41% / reading 57%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 1,060 students, 87% FRL); Denbigh High (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #301 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,225 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 55% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.2%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $120k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.88%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,854
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $49,964
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23602

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,046/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$393
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,468

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $170	+0% $137	+5% $103	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $72	+0% $137	+5% $201	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $167	base $137	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Springhouse Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,589	$2.35	3d	47	0.14mi
12663 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,500	$1.59	45d	1	0.37mi
12851 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	942	$1,450	$1.54	45d	1	0.41mi
804 Newday Ct Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	16d	1	0.46mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 520307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,614	$1.44	45d	1	0.53mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 621307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,499	$1.33	45d	1	0.53mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 610301 Newport News, VA	1.0	1.0	748	$1,379	$1.84	45d	1	0.53mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 601303 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,649	$1.47	25d	1	0.53mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 510305 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,699	$1.51	5d	1	0.53mi
161 Jenness Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1121	$1,537	$1.37	45d	1	0.54mi
1 Cedarwood Way Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,711	$1.63	45d	1	0.62mi
108 Tazewell Rd Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,900	$1.66	45d	1	0.67mi
900 Radius Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$2,143	$2.55	3d	22	0.73mi
14353 Deloice Cres Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,790	$1.84	3d	11	0.74mi
104 Landmark Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,504	$1.47	4d	1	0.77mi
153 Windsor Castle Dr Unit A Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	985	$1,450	$1.47	12d	1	0.80mi
163 Windsor Castle Dr Unit B Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1369	$1,750	$1.28	22d	1	0.87mi
522 Knolls Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1387	$1,925	$1.39	25d	2	0.89mi
522 Knolls Dr #308 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1387	$1,950	$1.41	22d	1	0.89mi
12750 Saint George St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,300	$0.96	9d	1	0.95mi
381 Advocate Ct Unit F Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,325	$0.95	45d	1	0.99mi
397 Deputy Ln Unit A Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,925	$1.35	22d	1	1.00mi
168-A Heritage Way Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,424	$1.57	3d	12	1.01mi
100 River Trace Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,250	$1.84	5d	4	1.05mi
500 Collinwood Pl Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	865	$1,195	$1.38	17d	1	1.08mi
416 Hustings Ln Unit F Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,850	$1.30	16d	1	1.10mi
416 Hustings Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	3.0	1422	$1,850	$1.30	14d	1	1.10mi
218 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	993	$2,150	$2.17	25d	1	1.14mi
14534 Old Courthouse Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,250	$1.71	4d	14	1.15mi
4327 Lacy Cove Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1382	$2,200	$1.59	12d	1	1.19mi
500 Big Forrest Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	828	$1,383	$1.67	5d	4	1.21mi
14505 Old Courthouse Way Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	970	$1,500	$1.55	5d	3	1.22mi
408 Savage Dr Unit A Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,895	$1.37	45d	1	1.22mi
13441 Warwick Blvd Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	1.23mi
13302 Garden State Dr Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,475	$1.61	4d	19	1.26mi
305 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,650	$1.62	12d	1	1.33mi
213 Picard Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	4d	1	1.34mi
229 Telford Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,495	$1.66	45d	1	1.38mi
15 Otsego Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,900	$1.48	45d	1	1.41mi
11 Betty Lee Pl Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,495	$1.50	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-26
    listed $120,000 Active
14. 2024-07-12
    historical $1,295
15. 2024-07-05
    listed $1,295
16. 2022-08-11
    soldstatus $65,000
17. 2022-08-01
    status Under Contract
18. 2022-07-14
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2022-06-27
    listed $65,000 Active
20. 2006-10-02
    soldstatus $102,000
21. 2004-06-14
    soldstatus $64,500
22. 1988-04-01
    soldstatus $65,000
23. 1984-03-06
    soldstatus $37,472
24. 1976-09-01
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,046 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,046 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,046
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − HOA: −$4,716
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$39
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 42,265
• Household income: $79,475
• Rent vs Own: 46.7% rent · 53.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1696.0

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.28%
• Current HPI: 283.0889
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.22%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+313.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-07-12 Rental Removed $1,295 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-07-05 Listed for Rent $1,295 TURBOTENANT
• 2022-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Pending — REINMLS
• 2022-07-14 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2022-06-27 Listed $65,000 REINMLS
• 2006-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1984-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $37,472 Public Records
• 1976-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,046 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.