801 Schipper St #86 · Arvin, CA 93203

$16,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 119 Days on market

Built 1968 $16/sqft · 8% below area Est $18k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Casa Estate Arvin - the best up and coming community in Arvin!! This 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath home with a LARGE footprint is available for sale! Home does need A LOT of work - so bring your handyman and your imagination and get started on your dream home! All offers must be non-financed

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1968
• Listed 119 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $16k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,368 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $114 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $495 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,015 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 93.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 309.83%
• DSCR: 14.79
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $17,874
• List price: $16,500
• Delta: -7.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Schipper St #86	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$10,000	$10	99
801 Schipper St #46	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	3mo	$9,500	$9	93
801 Schipper St #48	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (0%)	2mo	$77,500	$75	88
801 Schipper St #23	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	9mo	$7,500	$7	87
801 Schipper St #66	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	9mo	$79,990	$77	87
801 Schipper St #41	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	14mo	$75,000	$72	83
801 Schipper St #30	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	5mo	$19,000	$17	73
801 Schipper St #63	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	9mo	$75,000	$78	73
801 Schipper St #89	0.00mi	2/1.0	940 (-10%)	15mo	$15,000	$16	70
801 Schipper St #36	0.07mi	2/2.0	920 (-12%)	12mo	$26,000	$28	66
801 Schipper St #47	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+6%)	18mo	$85,000	$77	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.20×
• Total profit: $65,611
• Equity at exit: $2,460

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 32.46×
• Total profit: $145,338
• Equity at exit: $1,427

Cash invested: $4,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93203

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$87
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$21 /mo · $248/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $1,071

Break-even live

Break-even rent $299

Max offer price $16,500

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,125
• Closing costs: $495
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1315 Verde Ct Arvin, CA	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,800	$1.26	18d	1	0.30mi
2304 Hacienda Pl Arvin, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,475	$2.03	43d	1	0.55mi
668 Comanche Dr Arvin, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,329	$1.23	2d	1	0.64mi
225 Meyer St Arvin, CA	2.0	1.0	788	$1,036	$1.31	2d	1	0.87mi
200 Haven Dr Apt B Arvin, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	2d	1	0.88mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$924
• − Property taxes: −$248
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$480
• Taxable income: $13,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,234
• After-tax cash flow: $9,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arvin

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1368
• US rank: #27087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arvin, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,571

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 29% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 17% English-only · Spanish 83%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.57%
• Current HPI: 342.8562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B