3901 Lake Rd #151 · West Sacramento, CA 95691

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 1973 28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover an inviting lifestyle at 3901 LAKE RD ##151, West Sacramento. This ready-to-move-in mobile home offers a delightful blend of comfort and convenience, perfect for those seeking a serene yet connected living experience. This home has been upgraded from the top to the bottom! Enjoy the new home model feel with ALL NEW sleek stainless-steel appliances, elegant stone counter tops, Luxury hardwood vinyl, Windows, HVAC, Interior dry walls. The bathroom offers a refreshing experience with its convenient tile walk-in shower, designed for ease and relaxation. You can't go wrong with LARGE oversized walk-In closet space and storage. This property presents an exceptional opportunity to embrace

Key facts

• Hardwood vinyl
• Tile walk-in shower
• Stone counter tops

Tags

• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• STONE COUNTER TOPS
• HARDWOOD VINYL
• TILE WALK-IN SHOWER
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located at 3901 Lake Rd #151, West Sacramento, CA 95691; Directions provided to Space #151
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (site shows a land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Individual gas meter; 220V in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double wide; Remodeled/updated; Built in 1973
• Construction: Metal roof; Vinyl skirting (and other skirting)
• Exterior features: Porch awning; Covered patio; Porch; Landscaped front; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tile finishes
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Covered patio and porch; Dual-pane full windows; Porch awning; Shed(s) on the property; Great room living area; Dining/living combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside (in kitchen/inside room); 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#164 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A-; Watch: cost of living F.
• Washington Unified (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #197 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 721 units permitted in Yolo County in 2024 (260 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yolo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.70%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $48,599
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $125,953
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95691

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $1,166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   price $140,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $147,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-05-31
   listed $147,000 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $12,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,003
• After-tax cash flow: $10,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington Unified
• NCES district ID: 0641580
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,207
• Composite: 37.79/100
• National rank: #4339
• State rank: #197 of 517 in CA

Livability — West Sacramento

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #5389

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Sacramento, CA
• County: Yolo County · 212,115 people
• City population: 55,039
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,143
• Household income: $104,750
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Yolo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,183 people
• By 2030: 257,662 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 288,050 · +18.9%
• By 2050: 318,202 · +31.4%
• By 2075: 392,736 · +62.2%
• By 2100: 438,150 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 14% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Yolo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.2) · D 66.3% · R 30.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: 0.0pp no change · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.2 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+33.2 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.47%
• Current HPI: 316.9399
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B