21443 Jacaranda Blossom Way · Tomball, TX 77377

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,460 sqft lot 2-car garage $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 21443 Jacaranda Blossom Way, Tomball, Texas — a new construction single-story home built by M/I Homes. This thoughtfully designed home offers 1,535 square feet of comfortable living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfect for those seeking a well-crafted, move-in ready home. Step inside to discover an open-concept living space that creates a seamless flow between the main gathering areas. The quality of design is evident throughout, with carefully selected finishes and a functional floorplan that maximizes every square foot of the home. Key Features: New construction single-story home by M/I Homes 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms 1,535 square feet of living space Open-concept living space Owner's bedroom with a private en-suite bathroom Covered patio for outdoor relaxation and entertaining Move-in ready with quality finishes throughout The owner's bedroom features a private en-suite bathroom, providing a comfortable retreat at the end of each day. The additional 2 bedrooms offer flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the covered patio extends the living space and provides a shaded area to enjoy time outdoors. The surrounding neighborhood offers a welcoming atmosphere with proximity to parks, making it easy to stay active and enjoy the outdoors. This home combines quality construction, smart design, and a convenient single-story layout in a desirable Tomball neighborhood.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Modern appliances
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXURIOUS WALK-IN SHOWER
• DUAL SINK VANITY

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-549 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1061 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $197,080 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.97%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,990
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -6.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21310 Jacaranda Blossom Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,535 (0%)	3mo	$294,990	$192	92
21414 Jacaranda Blossom Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+9%)	1mo	$294,990	$176	81
21319 Mountain Haya Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+6%)	2mo	$310,990	$192	80
21418 Jacaranda Blossom Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-9%)	3mo	$269,990	$194	80
21322 Jacaranda Blossom Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+9%)	1mo	$289,990	$173	79
21227 Jacaranda Blossom Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-9%)	4mo	$282,990	$203	72
21423 Villa Spruce Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+9%)	4mo	$320,990	$192	71
21219 Jacaranda Blossom Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,756 (+14%)	2mo	$284,990	$162	66
21439 Gazania Daisy Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+5%)	5mo	$340,225	$211	60
21007 Carob Tree Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+8%)	6mo	$284,990	$172	59
20943 Carob Tree Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	6mo	$283,482	$202	57
21027 Carob Tree Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+8%)	6mo	$279,990	$169	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-88,451
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-144,052
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $309,990 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 131 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1061
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,665

Max offer price $215,595

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-345	-5% $-447	+0% $-549	+5% $-651	+10% $-753
Rent	-10% $-704	-5% $-627	+0% $-549	+5% $-471	+10% $-393
Rate	-1.0pp $-400	-0.5pp $-474	base $-549	+0.5pp $-625	+1.0pp $-703

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: M/I HomesProperty is under construction
• HOA & community: Association: King Property ManagementAnnual association fee of $800Association amenities include clubhouse and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Faces eastSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stone exteriorComposition roofBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 14 x 15Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 10Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 10
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $269,990 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $269,990 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   pricedays on market $269,990 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $274,990 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $274,990 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    pricedays on market $274,990 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $279,990 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $279,990 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    price $279,990 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $284,990 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $284,990 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $284,990 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $284,990 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    price $284,990 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 108 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    pricedays on market $289,990 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $294,990 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $294,990 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $294,990 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $294,990 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $294,990 Active 101 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $294,990 Active 100 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $294,990 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $294,990 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $294,990 Active 97 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $294,990 Active 96 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $294,990 Active 95 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $294,990 Active 94 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $294,990 Active 93 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $294,990 Active 92 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    price $294,990 Active 91 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 91 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 90 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 89 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 87 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 86 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 85 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $299,990 Active 84 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $305,990 Active 81 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $305,990 Active 79 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $305,990 Active 78 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $305,990 Active 76 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $305,990 Active 74 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$11,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,866
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 17 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. The home's curb appeal and fresh paint can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: M/I HomesProperty is under construction
• HOA & community: Association: King Property ManagementAnnual association fee of $800Association amenities include clubhouse and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)Faces eastSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stone exteriorComposition roofBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 14 x 15Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 10Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 10
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/showerCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $311,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Listed $311,990 HARMLS