100 Semi Cir · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$595,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1981 0.28 ac lot $183/sqft · 29% below area Est $840k · 29% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked at the end of a private cul-de-sac in Horseshoe Bay, this 3,255 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offers a level of exclusivity that’s increasingly hard to find—being the only home on the street. Elevated positioning captures sweeping Hill Country views, adding a strong visual element that enhances guest appeal. The split-level layout creates natural separation across multiple living areas, allowing for a flexible, high-functioning setup. The real differentiator is the expansive deck, designed as the centerpiece of the property. An in-ground pool, outdoor kitchen, and generous entertaining space come together to deliver the kind of elevated experience today’s rental guests actively seek—without the maintenance of a traditional yard. Inside, ample storage and well-proportioned spaces support efficient operations and extended stays. With its privacy, views, and amenity-driven design, this property stands out as a compelling opportunity in the Horseshoe Bay market.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $595k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-980 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $422k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,782/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 45% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($559k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,240 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $839,847
• List price: $595,000
• Delta: -29.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2820 Aurora	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,304 (+2%)	8mo	$599,000	$181	60
125 Cardinal	0.65mi	5/4.0	3,148 (-3%)	11mo	$975,000	$310	55
620 Hi Stirrup	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,008 (-8%)	14mo	$895,000	$298	48
2713 Aurora	0.57mi	4/5.0 (-1)	3,124 (-4%)	19mo	$950,000	$304	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-52,931
• Equity at exit: $201,432

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-16,835
• Equity at exit: $266,383

Cash invested: $166,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax from tax record: −$570 /mo · $6,843/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$794
• Net cashflow: $-980

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,023

Max offer price $421,823

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,750
• Closing costs: $17,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Fire Dance Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$3,800	$1.57	43d	1	0.68mi
820 Broken Arrow Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.5	3328	$4,590	$1.38	43d	1	1.12mi
415 Horseshoe Bay North Blvd Unit 1 Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	4.5	2375	$3,500	$1.47	43d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $595,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $595,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $595,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $595,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $595,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $595,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $595,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $595,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $595,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $595,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $595,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $595,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $595,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $595,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $595,000 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Tucked at the end of a private cul-de-sac in Horseshoe Bay, this 3,255 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offers a level of exclusivity that’s increasingly hard to find—being the only home on the street. Elevated positioning captures sweeping Hill Country views, adding a strong visual element that enhances guest appeal. The split-level layout creates natural separation across multiple living areas, allowing for a flexible, high-functioning setup. The real differentiator is the expansive deck, designed as the centerpiece of the property. An in-ground pool, outdoor kitchen, and generous entertaining space come together to deliver the kind of elevated experience today’s rental guests actively seek—without the maintenance of a traditional yard. Inside, ample storage and well-proportioned spaces support efficient operations and extended stays. With its privacy, views, and amenity-driven design, this property stands out as a compelling opportunity in the Horseshoe Bay market.

18. 2026-04-21
    price $595,000 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Tucked at the end of a private cul-de-sac in Horseshoe Bay, this 3,255 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offers a level of exclusivity that’s increasingly hard to find—being the only home on the street. Elevated positioning captures sweeping Hill Country views, adding a strong visual element that enhances guest appeal. The split-level layout creates natural separation across multiple living areas, allowing for a flexible, high-functioning setup. The real differentiator is the expansive deck, designed as the centerpiece of the property. An in-ground pool, outdoor kitchen, and generous entertaining space come together to deliver the kind of elevated experience today’s rental guests actively seek—without the maintenance of a traditional yard. Inside, ample storage and well-proportioned spaces support efficient operations and extended stays. With its privacy, views, and amenity-driven design, this property stands out as a compelling opportunity in the Horseshoe Bay market.

19. 2026-03-26
    listed $599,000 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Tucked at the end of a private cul-de-sac in Horseshoe Bay, this 3,255 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offers a level of exclusivity that’s increasingly hard to find—being the only home on the street. Elevated positioning captures sweeping Hill Country views, adding a strong visual element that enhances guest appeal. The split-level layout creates natural separation across multiple living areas, allowing for a flexible, high-functioning setup. The real differentiator is the expansive deck, designed as the centerpiece of the property. An in-ground pool, outdoor kitchen, and generous entertaining space come together to deliver the kind of elevated experience today’s rental guests actively seek—without the maintenance of a traditional yard. Inside, ample storage and well-proportioned spaces support efficient operations and extended stays. With its privacy, views, and amenity-driven design, this property stands out as a compelling opportunity in the Horseshoe Bay market.

20. 2026-03-26
    listed $599,000 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Tucked at the end of a private cul-de-sac in Horseshoe Bay, this 3,255 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home offers a level of exclusivity that’s increasingly hard to find—being the only home on the street. Elevated positioning captures sweeping Hill Country views, adding a strong visual element that enhances guest appeal. The split-level layout creates natural separation across multiple living areas, allowing for a flexible, high-functioning setup. The real differentiator is the expansive deck, designed as the centerpiece of the property. An in-ground pool, outdoor kitchen, and generous entertaining space come together to deliver the kind of elevated experience today’s rental guests actively seek—without the maintenance of a traditional yard. Inside, ample storage and well-proportioned spaces support efficient operations and extended stays. With its privacy, views, and amenity-driven design, this property stands out as a compelling opportunity in the Horseshoe Bay market.

21. 2015-10-05
    soldstatus
22. 2015-09-30
    soldstatus
23. 2015-07-30
    listed $273,420
24. 2009-06-01
    soldstatus
25. 2000-05-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,843 · $570/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,888 · $907/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,046/yr (+$337/mo · 59.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,329
• − Property taxes: −$6,843
• − Insurance: −$2,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,631
• − Management: −$3,631
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$17,309
• Taxable loss: −$22,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+117.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $595,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $595,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $599,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $599,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-30 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2015-07-30 Listed $273,420 Unlock MLS
• 2009-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,843 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.