The Caden Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Caden is one of our premier one-story floorplans featured in our Briarwood community in Elgin, Texas. With 1,595 square feet of comfortable living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed to perfectly accommodate the needs of any family. Your journey begins at the welcoming front porch, which leads you into a bright foyer. Immediately off the entryway, you'll find two spacious secondary bedrooms and a full secondary bathroom, providing a private wing for children, guests, or a home office. Continuing into the heart of the home, the space opens up into a stunning open-concept design. Large windows in the living room flood the area with natural light, while the kitchen and dining area blend seamlessly to create an environment perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring an abundance of storage, a dedicated pantry, and a large center island that overlooks the dining and family rooms. Just off the kitchen, a functional utility room offers convenient access to the two-car garage. Tucked away off the living room for maximum privacy, the primary bedroom serves as a true retreat. The attached ensuite bathroom features a walk-in shower, a double vanity, and an oversized walk-in closet with all the space you need to get ready in the morning. The living space extends outdoors to a private backyard with a large covered patio, ideal for enjoying the Texas weather. To top it off, this home comes included with a professional

Key facts

• Large windows
• One story floorplans
• Bright foyer

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLANS
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• BRIGHT FOYER
• PRIVATE WING
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,999.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $200,639 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,999
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -3.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25641 Flora Bella Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	2mo	$299,999	$179	87
25632 Wheat Seed Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	0mo	$299,999	$179	83
101 Bandera Woods Blvd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-6%)	0mo	$254,000	$169	81
13701 Scarlett Song Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+8%)	1mo	$299,999	$174	81
13817 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+9%)	3mo	$326,700	$189	78
107 Jefferson Cv	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+6%)	4mo	$259,900	$154	74
13605 Barn Chime St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+1%)	2mo	$289,990	$180	65
13609 Barn Chime St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	4mo	$299,990	$182	60
709 Lavaca Loop	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-14%)	2mo	$245,000	$178	52
212 Valley Run Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-9%)	3mo	$270,000	$187	47
18309 Rock Sage Cv	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,766 (+11%)	2mo	$279,900	$158	44
13708 Sierra Wind Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,833 (+15%)	1mo	$254,999	$139	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $132,568
• Equity at exit: $270,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $415,396
• Equity at exit: $582,832

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $229,359

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.17mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	0.32mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.47mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.49mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	0.54mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.61mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.67mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.72mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.72mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.72mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.79mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.81mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	0.81mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	23d	1	0.81mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	19d	1	0.82mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.86mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	1d	1	0.90mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.90mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.92mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	0.96mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.98mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.98mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	1.02mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	1.05mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	1.10mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	1d	1	1.11mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	1.18mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	1.18mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	1.19mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	1.22mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	1.27mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	1.30mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	1.33mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	1.35mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	1.36mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	23d	1	1.42mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	1d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $289,990 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    The Caden is one of our premier one-story floorplans featured in our Briarwood community in Elgin, Texas. With 1,595 square feet of comfortable living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed to perfectly accommodate the needs of any family. Your journey begins at the welcoming front porch, which leads you into a bright foyer. Immediately off the entryway, you'll find two spacious secondary bedrooms and a full secondary bathroom, providing a private wing for children, guests, or a home office. Continuing into the heart of the home, the space opens up into a stunning open-concept design. Large windows in the living room flood the area with natural light, while the kitchen and dining area blend seamlessly to create an environment perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring an abundance of storage, a dedicated pantry, and a large center island that overlooks the dining and family rooms. Just off the kitchen, a functional utility room offers convenient access to the two-car garage. Tucked away off the living room for maximum privacy, the primary bedroom serves as a true retreat. The attached ensuite bathroom features a walk-in shower, a double vanity, and an oversized walk-in closet with all the space you need to get ready in the morning. The living space extends outdoors to a private backyard with a large covered patio, ideal for enjoying the Texas weather. To top it off, this home comes included with a professional

15. 2026-04-23
    listed $299,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    The Caden is one of our premier one-story floorplans featured in our Briarwood community in Elgin, Texas. With 1,595 square feet of comfortable living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is designed to perfectly accommodate the needs of any family. Your journey begins at the welcoming front porch, which leads you into a bright foyer. Immediately off the entryway, you'll find two spacious secondary bedrooms and a full secondary bathroom, providing a private wing for children, guests, or a home office. Continuing into the heart of the home, the space opens up into a stunning open-concept design. Large windows in the living room flood the area with natural light, while the kitchen and dining area blend seamlessly to create an environment perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring an abundance of storage, a dedicated pantry, and a large center island that overlooks the dining and family rooms. Just off the kitchen, a functional utility room offers convenient access to the two-car garage. Tucked away off the living room for maximum privacy, the primary bedroom serves as a true retreat. The attached ensuite bathroom features a walk-in shower, a double vanity, and an oversized walk-in closet with all the space you need to get ready in the morning. The living space extends outdoors to a private backyard with a large covered patio, ideal for enjoying the Texas weather. To top it off, this home comes included with a professional

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$11,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,714
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Listed $299,990 Zillow