31779 Podgorna Pl · Nikolaevsk, AK 99556

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Other public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2013 4.48 ac lot $146/sqft · 40% below area Est $373k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom property offers the perfect balance of functionality, potential, and peaceful country living. Situated on 4.48 acres, you'll have the freedom to truly make this property your own--whether that means building out a hobby farm, creating a garden oasis, or bringing animals and embracing a more self-sufficient lifestyle. The home provides comfortable living space with room to grow. Inside, enjoy the warmth and charm of a wood stove to help keep heating costs down, along with an attached two-story sunroom you're sure to fall in love with--perfect for soaking in natural light and enjoying Alaska's changing seasons year-round. Durable cement board siding offers low-maint

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Cement board siding
• Fenced pens

Tags

• 4.48 ACRES
• WOOD STOVE
• ATTACHED TWO-STORY SUNROOM
• CEMENT BOARD SIDING
• FENCED PENS
• CHICKEN COOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Dirt road access
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Built in 2013; Wood frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Sun room; Seller/buyer obligations noted in remarks

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Bedroom and bathroom on the main level; Ceiling fans; Electric service

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-520/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#164 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $166,173 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,299
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -39.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $17,968
• Equity at exit: $94,487

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $75,714
• Equity at exit: $140,618

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99556

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $989/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,717

Max offer price $217,351

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $225,000 Active 1080-char remark
18. 2019-07-02
    listed $144,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$844/yr (+$70/mo · 85.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$989
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikolaevsk

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #24043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikolaevsk, AK
• City population: 2,858
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Current HPI: 169.1953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+55.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $225,000 AKMLS
• 2019-07-02 Listed $144,500 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $989 · -51.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.