33114 Mckinley Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$204,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2003 7,405 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bedroom manufactured home located in quiet neighborhood. You will enjoy living close to Kroger, Target and the new HEB for your convenience and close to the Woodlands. Some of the upgrades include a recent new roof. Hurry won't last long!

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Private bath
• Soaking tub

Tags

• TREE-FILLED LOT
• NO BACK NEIGHBOR
• PRIVATE BATH
• DUAL SINKS
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has additional parcel(s)
• HOA & community: Community managed by MC Management; Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Located on a cul-de-sac in a subdivision; Concrete road access
• Construction: Built in 2003; Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Breakfast nook adjacent to kitchen (approx. 10x13)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11x13); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 13x10 and 10x10); Home configured for 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Energy-efficient thermostat
• Interior features: Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $204k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 14471% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,880 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.90%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $146,619
• Equity at exit: $183,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.77×
• Total profit: $386,623
• Equity at exit: $396,327

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,739/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $204,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	1d	22	0.32mi
33124 Magnolia Cir Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,875	$1.67	43d	1	0.43mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,383	$1.73	10d	1	0.70mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1812	$2,195	$1.21	4d	7	0.77mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 10366 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,372	$1.72	10d	1	0.78mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,340	$1.70	2d	1	0.78mi
39300 Cimarron Way Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,353	$1.15	11d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $204,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $204,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $204,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $204,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $204,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-05-01
   listed $204,000 Active 673-char remark
7. 2018-04-25
   soldstatus
8. 2018-04-24
   soldstatus Sold 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   Nice 3 bedroom manufactured home located in quiet neighborhood. You will enjoy living close to Kroger, Target and the new HEB for your convenience and close to the Woodlands. Some of the upgrades include a recent new roof. Hurry won't last long!

9. 2018-04-05
   status Pending 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   Nice 3 bedroom manufactured home located in quiet neighborhood. You will enjoy living close to Kroger, Target and the new HEB for your convenience and close to the Woodlands. Some of the upgrades include a recent new roof. Hurry won't last long!

10. 2018-03-27
    status Option Pending 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Nice 3 bedroom manufactured home located in quiet neighborhood. You will enjoy living close to Kroger, Target and the new HEB for your convenience and close to the Woodlands. Some of the upgrades include a recent new roof. Hurry won't last long!

11. 2018-03-15
    listed $94,000 Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Nice 3 bedroom manufactured home located in quiet neighborhood. You will enjoy living close to Kroger, Target and the new HEB for your convenience and close to the Woodlands. Some of the upgrades include a recent new roof. Hurry won't last long!

12. 2011-01-20
    soldstatus
13. 2007-04-18
    historical
14. 2007-03-14
    listed $24,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,733 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,994/yr (+$166/mo · 114.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$1,739
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable income: $4,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $6,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-94.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $204,000 HARMLS
• 2018-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-03-15 Listed $94,000 HARMLS
• 2011-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-03-14 Listed $24,950 HARMLS

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,739 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.