215 Bristol Bend Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77382

$550,300

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,471 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1994 8,324 sqft lot $223/sqft · at area comps Est $576k · at est. $92/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This four-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is located in the desirable Woodlands Village Alden Bridge neighborhood. The interior features a primary suite designed for convenience, complete with a dedicated primary bathroom and a large walk-in closet. The kitchen is equipped with functional laminate countertops and modern stainless steel appliances, providing a practical space for daily meal preparation. The location is a standout feature, allowing you to enjoy an active lifestyle with easy access to neighborhood amenities, including nearby parks, scenic walking paths, and a community pool—all within walking distance. Shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares are just moments away, making commuting a breeze. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Nearby parks
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• DEDICATED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• NEARBY PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $493k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $455k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $455k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($162k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $454,806 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $576,167
• List price: $550,300
• Delta: -4.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Pinepath Pl	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,523 (+2%)	1mo	$565,000	$224	83
70 Amberglow Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,607 (+6%)	0mo	$575,000	$221	80
82 E Coldbrook Cir	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,611 (+6%)	1mo	$619,900	$237	67
46 Indian Summer Pl	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,631 (+6%)	1mo	$617,774	$235	67
14 S Duskwood Pl	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,666 (+8%)	3mo	$565,000	$212	67
50 E Greywing Cir	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,704 (+9%)	2mo	$495,000	$183	66
107 N N Sunny Slope Cir	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,646 (+7%)	3mo	$499,000	$189	63
26 Serene Creek Pl	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,570 (+4%)	2mo	$525,000	$204	58
6 Tethered Vine Pl	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,561 (+4%)	6mo	$547,900	$214	56
18 S Dragonwood Pl	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,827 (+14%)	4mo	$725,000	$256	56
175 W Bristol Oak Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,566 (+4%)	2mo	$575,000	$224	54
23 Sparklewood Pl	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,841 (+15%)	1mo	$649,999	$229	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-117,710
• Equity at exit: $82,052

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-159,904
• Equity at exit: $47,580

Cash invested: $154,084 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77382

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,548 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,886
• Tax from tax record: −$713 /mo · $8,550/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$955
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,962

Max offer price $492,591

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,575
• Closing costs: $16,509
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 S Winterport Cir Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2386	$2,850	$1.19	43d	1	0.62mi
35 Alden Glen Dr Spring, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$10,750	$4.02	24d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,300 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,300 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,300 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,300 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $550,300 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $569,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $569,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $569,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $569,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $569,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $569,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $569,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $569,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $569,900 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    This four-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is located in the desirable Woodlands Village Alden Bridge neighborhood. The interior features a primary suite designed for convenience, complete with a dedicated primary bathroom and a large walk-in closet. The kitchen is equipped with functional laminate countertops and modern stainless steel appliances, providing a practical space for daily meal preparation. The location is a standout feature, allowing you to enjoy an active lifestyle with easy access to neighborhood amenities, including nearby parks, scenic walking paths, and a community pool—all within walking distance. Shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares are just moments away, making commuting a breeze. Schedule your private showing today!

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $574,500 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    This four-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is located in the desirable Woodlands Village Alden Bridge neighborhood. The interior features a primary suite designed for convenience, complete with a dedicated primary bathroom and a large walk-in closet. The kitchen is equipped with functional laminate countertops and modern stainless steel appliances, providing a practical space for daily meal preparation. The location is a standout feature, allowing you to enjoy an active lifestyle with easy access to neighborhood amenities, including nearby parks, scenic walking paths, and a community pool—all within walking distance. Shopping, dining, and major thoroughfares are just moments away, making commuting a breeze. Schedule your private showing today!

16. 2021-12-16
    historical
17. 2021-11-27
    status Active
18. 2021-11-17
    status Option Pending
19. 2021-09-17
    price $379,900
20. 2021-09-03
    price $394,900
21. 2021-08-20
    price $409,900
22. 2021-08-06
    price $419,900
23. 2021-07-22
    listed $432,900 Active
24. 2021-06-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,550 · $713/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,070 · $839/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,520/yr (+$127/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,825
• − Property taxes: −$8,550
• − Insurance: −$2,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,366
• − Management: −$4,366
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$16,009
• Taxable loss: −$13,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,215
• After-tax cash flow: $-705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,986
• Household income: $162,384
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 616.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.44%
• Current HPI: 233.2304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+31.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $569,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $574,500 HARMLS
• 2021-12-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-11-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-11-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-17 Price Changed $379,900 HARMLS
• 2021-09-03 Price Changed $394,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-20 Price Changed $409,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-06 Price Changed $419,900 HARMLS
• 2021-07-22 Listed $432,900 HARMLS
• 2021-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,550 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.