185 Holden Ave · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1966 0.58 ac lot Est $1546k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the highly sought-after Fleets Neck community of Cutchogue! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home presents an incredible opportunity to CREATE YOUR dream North Fork retreat!! Set on a beautiful Half Acre plus of property with room for a swimming pool, this home features Living room with fireplace, Huge Eat-In-Kitchen, hardwood floors, skylight, oil-fired forced hot air heat, Public Water and a full basement with endless possibilities, complete with a walk-out patio leading to a private and very peaceful backyard. Ideally located in the heart of the North Fork, you'll enjoy easy access to multiple town beaches on both the Bay and Long Island Sound, as well as nearby ocean beaches

Key facts

• Eat-in-kitchen
• Private backyard
• Swimming pool

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• EAT-IN-KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MULTIPLE TOWN BEACHES
• COUNTY PARKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom breakdown not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace; Walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.15M).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 7.5% in Cutchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $123k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $115k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $322k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$198k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $189k; list at $1.15M implies a 508% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.17%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,546,180
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
985 Track Ave	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,800 (-7%)	11mo	$1,435,000	$797	60
2810 Beebe Dr	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,800 (-7%)	1mo	$1,500,000	$833	51
1125 Pequash Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,200 (+13%)	1mo	$861,000	$391	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $953,595
• Equity at exit: $1,036,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.92×
• Total profit: $2,550,090
• Equity at exit: $2,234,197

Cash invested: $322,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,549 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,031
• Tax from tax record: −$631 /mo · $7,571/yr
• Insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,265
• Net cashflow: $5,143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,039

Max offer price $1,150,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $287,500
• Closing costs: $34,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Moose Trl Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2600	$20,000	$7.69	43d	1	0.78mi
530 Stillwater Ave Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	43d	1	0.79mi
1500 Vanston Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$8,000	$6.15	43d	1	1.09mi
1850 Sterling Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$3,800	$3.04	43d	1	1.13mi
1600 Pine Tree Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2012	$10,000	$4.97	43d	1	1.18mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	43d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 692-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $1,150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,571 · $631/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,503 · $1,125/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,932/yr (+$494/mo · 78.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $186,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,418
• − Property taxes: −$7,571
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,927
• − Management: −$14,927
• − Depreciation: −$33,455
• Taxable income: $45,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,929
• After-tax cash flow: $50,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+508.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $1,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,571 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.