185 Holden Ave · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1966 Good condition 0.58 ac lot 1-car garage $593/sqft · 15% below area Est $1.349M · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the highly sought-after Fleets Neck community of Cutchogue! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home presents an incredible opportunity to CREATE YOUR dream North Fork retreat!! Set on a beautiful Half Acre plus of property with room for a swimming pool, this home features Living room with fireplace, Huge Eat-In-Kitchen, hardwood floors, skylight, oil-fired forced hot air heat, Public Water and a full basement with endless possibilities, complete with a walk-out patio leading to a private and very peaceful backyard.

Key facts

• Eat-in-kitchen
• Private backyard
• Swimming pool

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• EAT-IN-KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MULTIPLE TOWN BEACHES
• COUNTY PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.15M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($57k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.15M).
• Recommended offer: $1.13M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 9.1% in Cutchogue — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,083/mo this rent would consume 131% of the median local household income ($138k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $123k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $115k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $322k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$198k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.13M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $189k; list at $1.15M implies a 508% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,132,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.79%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,349,115
• List price: $1,150,000
• Delta: -14.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Eastwood Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,200 (+13%)	3mo	$1,440,000	$655	70
5050 Pequash Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-19%)	3mo	$965,000	$615	58
985 Track Ave	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,800 (-7%)	14mo	$1,435,000	$797	57
2810 Beebe Dr	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,800 (-7%)	4mo	$1,500,000	$833	49
2870 Fairway Dr	0.99mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-2%)	10mo	$1,280,000	$674	48
1125 Pequash Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,200 (+13%)	4mo	$861,000	$391	45
1415 4th St	1.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-18%)	3mo	$979,000	$612	37
735 Deerfoot Path	0.85mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (+13%)	5mo	$1,099,000	$500	31
1350 Eugenes Rd	0.99mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,800 (-7%)	16mo	$1,950,000	$1,083	30
590 Haywaters Dr	0.80mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,239 (+15%)	10mo	$1,825,000	$815	27
1250 2nd St	0.97mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-18%)	13mo	$1,010,000	$638	24
475 Lilac Ln	0.96mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,600 (-18%)	11mo	$990,000	$619	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $930,158
• Equity at exit: $1,036,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.76×
• Total profit: $2,499,482
• Equity at exit: $2,234,197

Cash invested: $322,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.4 mo (42%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $977,000 ($431/sqft)
• Median days on market: 260 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +61.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,031
• Tax from tax record: −$631 /mo · $7,571/yr
• Insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,167
• Net cashflow: $4,775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,039

Max offer price $1,150,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,426	-5% $5,100	+0% $4,775	+5% $4,449	+10% $4,124
Rent	-10% $3,583	-5% $4,179	+0% $4,775	+5% $5,371	+10% $5,966
Rate	-1.0pp $5,354	-0.5pp $5,067	base $4,775	+0.5pp $4,477	+1.0pp $4,174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $287,500
• Closing costs: $34,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3655 Pequash Ave Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2400	$30,000	$12.50	1d	1	0.28mi
25 Moose Trl Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2600	$20,000	$7.69	1d	1	0.78mi
530 Stillwater Ave Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	139d	1	0.79mi
875 Deerfoot Path Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2532	$7,500	$2.96	1d	1	0.83mi
440 Haywaters Rd Cutchogue, NY	4.0	3.0	1743	$20,000	$11.47	1d	1	0.87mi
1020 Monsell Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1870	$8,500	$4.55	1d	1	0.90mi
150 King St New Suffolk, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$4,500	$2.25	1d	1	1.05mi
1500 Vanston Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$8,000	$6.15	139d	1	1.09mi
1850 Sterling Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$3,800	$3.04	139d	1	1.13mi
1600 Pine Tree Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2012	$10,000	$4.97	139d	1	1.18mi
295 Jackson St New Suffolk, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,000	$3.00	1d	1	1.22mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	139d	1	1.26mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway1-car garageNo carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerElectricity connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceLiving area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom breakdown not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingNo central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenFireplaceWalk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-29
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-28
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-27
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-26
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-22
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-15
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-13
    remarks 692-char remark
14. 2026-06-13
    listed $1,150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,571 · $631/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,503 · $1,125/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,932/yr (+$494/mo · 78.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $180,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,418
• − Property taxes: −$7,571
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,480
• − Management: −$14,480
• − Depreciation: −$33,455
• Taxable income: $40,843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,802
• After-tax cash flow: $47,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,700–$29,100 screening

This single-family home in Cutchogue, NY, is in good condition with a good roof, exterior, and interior. It has a spacious layout and is well-maintained. Painting the exterior and maintaining the landscaping would significantly increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 70/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School B+ NY #575/2,108 Nat'l #4,825/41,679 High Mattituck Junior-Senior High School B+ NY #670/1,100 Nat'l #1,820/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 2,946
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 2,946
• Household income: $138,024
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway1-car garageNo carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerElectricity connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceLiving area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom breakdown not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingNo central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenFireplaceWalk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

+508.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $1,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,571 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.