185 Holden Ave · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,299,983

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,940 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1966 Good condition 0.58 ac lot 1-car garage $670/sqft · at area comps Est $1.35M · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Space to Dream. Winter Water Views. Your North Fork Chapter. Welcome to 185 Holden Avenue in Cutchogue, where a generous property and a desirable coastal location create an opportunity to make North Fork living your own. Situated on one of the largest available parcels in the Fleets Neck area, this four-bedroom, two-bath multi level home offers an elevated setting, winter water views, and an expansive yard within the Mattituck-Cutchogue School District. The outdoor space sets the stage. A spacious new paver patio welcomes summer barbecues, celebrations, and quiet evenings under the stars, while the sprawling lawn offers room for sports, gardening, and outdoor relaxation.

Key facts

• Flexible interior
• Rights to keep kayak
• Expansive yard

Tags

• EXPANSIVE YARD
• NEW PAVER PATIO
• SPRAWLING LAWN
• RIGHTS TO KEEP KAYAK
• FLEXIBLE INTERIOR
• PROXIMITY TO BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.30M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($77k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.30M).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.8% in Cutchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,213/mo this rent would consume 158% of the median local household income ($138k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $139k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $130k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $364k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$223k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $189k; list at $1.30M implies a 588% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,299,983

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.07%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,349,674
• List price: $1,299,983
• Delta: -3.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
675 Dicks Point Rd	0.05mi	4/3.0	1,685 (-13%)	0mo	$1,200,000	$712	73
350 Eastwood Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,200 (+13%)	5mo	$1,440,000	$655	67
985 Track Ave	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,800 (-7%)	15mo	$1,435,000	$797	58
2700 Harbor Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,200 (+13%)	1mo	$1,650,000	$750	50
2810 Beebe Dr	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,800 (-7%)	6mo	$1,500,000	$833	49
1125 Pequash Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,200 (+13%)	6mo	$861,000	$391	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $1,114,692
• Equity at exit: $1,171,128

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.14×
• Total profit: $2,961,850
• Equity at exit: $2,525,581

Cash invested: $363,995 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,100,000 ($545/sqft)
• Median days on market: 185 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,213 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,817
• Tax from tax record: −$631 /mo · $7,571/yr
• Insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,825
• Net cashflow: $6,391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,124

Max offer price $1,299,983

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,126	-5% $6,759	+0% $6,391	+5% $6,023	+10% $5,655
Rent	-10% $4,952	-5% $5,671	+0% $6,391	+5% $7,110	+10% $7,829
Rate	-1.0pp $7,045	-0.5pp $6,721	base $6,391	+0.5pp $6,054	+1.0pp $5,711

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $324,996
• Closing costs: $38,999
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3655 Pequash Ave Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2400	$30,000	$12.50	10d	1	0.28mi
1410 New Suffolk Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,650	$2.03	29d	1	0.64mi
25 Moose Trl Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2600	$20,000	$7.69	5d	1	0.78mi
530 Stillwater Ave Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	6d	1	0.79mi
875 Deerfoot Path Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2532	$10,000	$3.95	0d	1	0.83mi
5415 Skunk Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1800	$18,000	$10.00	10d	1	0.85mi
1020 Monsell Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1870	$6,000	$3.21	0d	1	0.90mi
150 King St New Suffolk, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$4,500	$2.25	47d	1	1.05mi
215 Kouros Rd New Suffolk, NY	5.0	3.0	2500	$16,000	$6.40	2d	1	1.07mi
1500 Vanston Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$17,500	$13.46	10d	1	1.09mi
1850 Sterling Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$3,800	$3.04	184d	1	1.13mi
1600 Pine Tree Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2012	$10,000	$4.97	1d	1	1.18mi
1600 Pine Tree Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2012	$10,000	$4.97	6d	1	1.18mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	184d	1	1.26mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway1-car garageNo carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerElectricity connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceLiving area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom breakdown not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingNo central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenFireplaceWalk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $8/mo · $96/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $1,299,983 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $1,299,983 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $1,299,983 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $1,299,983 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $1,299,983 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $1,299,983 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $1,299,983 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   pricedays on marketlisting id $1,299,983 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-29
   days on market $1,150,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-27
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-26
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-22
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-21
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-21
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-06-18
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-06-17
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-06-15
    remarks 699-char remark
20. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1,150,000 Active 3 DOM
21. 2026-06-13
    remarks 692-char remark
22. 2026-06-13
    listed $1,150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,571 · $631/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,770 · $1,231/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,199/yr (+$600/mo · 95.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $218,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,819
• − Property taxes: −$7,571
• − Insurance: −$6,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,485
• − Management: −$17,485
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$37,818
• Taxable income: $58,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14,108
• After-tax cash flow: $62,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,700–$29,100 screening

This single-family home in Cutchogue, NY, is in good condition with a good roof, exterior, and interior. It has a spacious layout and is well-maintained. Painting the exterior and maintaining the landscaping would significantly increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 70/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School B+ NY #575/2,108 Nat'l #4,825/41,679 High Mattituck Junior-Senior High School B+ NY #670/1,100 Nat'l #1,820/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 2,946
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 2,946
• Household income: $138,024
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway1-car garageNo carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewerElectricity connectedWater connected
• Home design: Single family residenceLiving area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom breakdown not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingNo central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenFireplaceWalk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

+508.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $1,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,571 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.