5859 N Utter Rd · Wellston, MI 49644

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1969 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the Up North lifestyle with this great getaway offering deeded access and a dock on beautiful Sauble Lake #1--just a short walk right out your back door. Whether you're looking to fish, kayak, or simply relax by the water, this property makes lake living easy and accessible. The mobile home has been carefully maintained and protected over the years with a full metal roof system. Inside, you'll find 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, a kitchen, dining area, and a comfortable living room. Recent updates include a remodeled bathroom, an updated bedroom, and a newer hot water heater. Step outside onto the spacious covered deck--perfect for enjoying the fresh northern air after a day on the lake. The property also includes a detached garage and shed. Being sold mostly furnished, this is a turnkey opportunity to start enjoying everything the Irons area has to offer right away. Set up camp, hit the lake, and make lasting memories!

Key facts

• Remodeled bathroom
• Deeded access
• Updated bedroom

Tags

• DEEDED ACCESS
• DOCK ON BEAUTIFUL SAUBLE LAKE
• SPACIOUS COVERED DECK
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• UPDATED BEDROOM
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($830 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#661 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baldwin Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 224 students, 97% FRL); Baldwin Junior High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #466 of 493 statewide, top 95%, 99 students, 98% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 119 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.60%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $52,183
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $142,521
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49644

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $456/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $549

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $242	+0% $222	+5% $202	+10% $182
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $189	+0% $222	+5% $255	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $240	base $222	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $69,900 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-04-06
    listed $79,900 Active 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Escape to the Up North lifestyle with this great getaway offering deeded access and a dock on beautiful Sauble Lake #1--just a short walk right out your back door. Whether you're looking to fish, kayak, or simply relax by the water, this property makes lake living easy and accessible. The mobile home has been carefully maintained and protected over the years with a full metal roof system. Inside, you'll find 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, a kitchen, dining area, and a comfortable living room. Recent updates include a remodeled bathroom, an updated bedroom, and a newer hot water heater. Step outside onto the spacious covered deck--perfect for enjoying the fresh northern air after a day on the lake. The property also includes a detached garage and shed. Being sold mostly furnished, this is a turnkey opportunity to start enjoying everything the Irons area has to offer right away. Set up camp, hit the lake, and make lasting memories!

14. 2026-04-06
    listed $79,900 Active 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Escape to the Up North lifestyle with this great getaway offering deeded access and a dock on beautiful Sauble Lake #1--just a short walk right out your back door. Whether you're looking to fish, kayak, or simply relax by the water, this property makes lake living easy and accessible. The mobile home has been carefully maintained and protected over the years with a full metal roof system. Inside, you'll find 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, a kitchen, dining area, and a comfortable living room. Recent updates include a remodeled bathroom, an updated bedroom, and a newer hot water heater. Step outside onto the spacious covered deck--perfect for enjoying the fresh northern air after a day on the lake. The property also includes a detached garage and shed. Being sold mostly furnished, this is a turnkey opportunity to start enjoying everything the Irons area has to offer right away. Set up camp, hit the lake, and make lasting memories!

15. 2026-04-06
    listed $79,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Escape to the Up North lifestyle with this great getaway offering deeded access and a dock on beautiful Sauble Lake #1--just a short walk right out your back door. Whether you're looking to fish, kayak, or simply relax by the water, this property makes lake living easy and accessible. The mobile home has been carefully maintained and protected over the years with a full metal roof system. Inside, you'll find 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, a kitchen, dining area, and a comfortable living room. Recent updates include a remodeled bathroom, an updated bedroom, and a newer hot water heater. Step outside onto the spacious covered deck--perfect for enjoying the fresh northern air after a day on the lake. The property also includes a detached garage and shed. Being sold mostly furnished, this is a turnkey opportunity to start enjoying everything the Irons area has to offer right away. Set up camp, hit the lake, and make lasting memories!

16. 2025-12-15
    historical
17. 2025-12-14
    historical
18. 2025-09-25
    price $79,900
19. 2025-09-24
    price $79,900
20. 2025-09-24
    price $79,900
21. 2025-08-03
    price $84,900
22. 2025-08-03
    price $84,900
23. 2025-08-03
    price $84,900
24. 2025-06-16
    listed $89,900 Active
25. 2025-06-15
    listed $89,900 Active
26. 2012-12-13
    historical
27. 2012-12-13
    historical
28. 2012-06-10
    listed $38,900
29. 2012-06-10
    listed $38,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$310/yr (+$26/mo · 67.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$456
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$797
• − Management: −$797
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $1,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$386
• After-tax cash flow: $2,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Wellston

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #661
• US rank: #22773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,846

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.53%
• Current HPI: 236.7989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+105.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-06 Listed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $84,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-15 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-12-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-12-13 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2012-06-10 Listed $38,900 REALCOMP
• 2012-06-10 Listed $38,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $456 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.