21649 County Road 3747 · Splendora, TX 77372

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2002 0.81 ac lot $102/sqft · at area comps Est $195k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 21649 County Road 3747 — hands down the best-looking property in the neighborhood, and it's easy to see why. This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 0.81-acre unrestricted lot, giving you the freedom to use your land however you see fit. Build a workshop, start a garden — the possibilities are endless. Step inside and discover a home that has been completely renovated from top to bottom. The updated kitchen features sleek stainless steel appliances, making it the perfect space for family dinners and weekend entertaining. But the real showstopper? Walk out your door and take in stunning views of the nearby fishing lake, just steps from your property. Imagine spending your mornings with a cup of coffee on the open porch watching the sunrise over the water, or casting a line after work without ever leaving the neighborhood. This is the lifestyle most people only dream about. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Unrestricted lot
• Stunning views
• Fishing lake

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED LOT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FISHING LAKE
• OPEN PORCH
• STUNNING VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,925
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -3.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21649 County Road 3747	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,856 (0%)	0mo	$189,000	$102	100
21614 County Road 3747	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+9%)	1mo	$195,000	$97	70
21630 County Road 37491	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-10%)	12mo	$130,000	$78	63
21596 County Road 3749	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,072 (+12%)	9mo	$199,993	$97	59
12128 County Road 37498	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+7%)	2mo	$259,000	$131	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-21,011
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,870
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,813/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,630

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $189,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1002-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

   Welcome home to 21649 County Road 3747 — hands down the best-looking property in the neighborhood, and it's easy to see why. This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 0.81-acre unrestricted lot, giving you the freedom to use your land however you see fit. Build a workshop, start a garden — the possibilities are endless. Step inside and discover a home that has been completely renovated from top to bottom. The updated kitchen features sleek stainless steel appliances, making it the perfect space for family dinners and weekend entertaining. But the real showstopper? Walk out your door and take in stunning views of the nearby fishing lake, just steps from your property. Imagine spending your mornings with a cup of coffee on the open porch watching the sunrise over the water, or casting a line after work without ever leaving the neighborhood. This is the lifestyle most people only dream about. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone!

6. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract 1002-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

   Welcome home to 21649 County Road 3747 — hands down the best-looking property in the neighborhood, and it's easy to see why. This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 0.81-acre unrestricted lot, giving you the freedom to use your land however you see fit. Build a workshop, start a garden — the possibilities are endless. Step inside and discover a home that has been completely renovated from top to bottom. The updated kitchen features sleek stainless steel appliances, making it the perfect space for family dinners and weekend entertaining. But the real showstopper? Walk out your door and take in stunning views of the nearby fishing lake, just steps from your property. Imagine spending your mornings with a cup of coffee on the open porch watching the sunrise over the water, or casting a line after work without ever leaving the neighborhood. This is the lifestyle most people only dream about. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone!

7. 2026-04-22
   price $189,000 1002-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

   Welcome home to 21649 County Road 3747 — hands down the best-looking property in the neighborhood, and it's easy to see why. This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 0.81-acre unrestricted lot, giving you the freedom to use your land however you see fit. Build a workshop, start a garden — the possibilities are endless. Step inside and discover a home that has been completely renovated from top to bottom. The updated kitchen features sleek stainless steel appliances, making it the perfect space for family dinners and weekend entertaining. But the real showstopper? Walk out your door and take in stunning views of the nearby fishing lake, just steps from your property. Imagine spending your mornings with a cup of coffee on the open porch watching the sunrise over the water, or casting a line after work without ever leaving the neighborhood. This is the lifestyle most people only dream about. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone!

8. 2026-03-16
   price $199,000 1002-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

   Welcome home to 21649 County Road 3747 — hands down the best-looking property in the neighborhood, and it's easy to see why. This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 0.81-acre unrestricted lot, giving you the freedom to use your land however you see fit. Build a workshop, start a garden — the possibilities are endless. Step inside and discover a home that has been completely renovated from top to bottom. The updated kitchen features sleek stainless steel appliances, making it the perfect space for family dinners and weekend entertaining. But the real showstopper? Walk out your door and take in stunning views of the nearby fishing lake, just steps from your property. Imagine spending your mornings with a cup of coffee on the open porch watching the sunrise over the water, or casting a line after work without ever leaving the neighborhood. This is the lifestyle most people only dream about. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone!

9. 2026-02-25
   listed $205,000 Active 1002-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

   Welcome home to 21649 County Road 3747 — hands down the best-looking property in the neighborhood, and it's easy to see why. This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 0.81-acre unrestricted lot, giving you the freedom to use your land however you see fit. Build a workshop, start a garden — the possibilities are endless. Step inside and discover a home that has been completely renovated from top to bottom. The updated kitchen features sleek stainless steel appliances, making it the perfect space for family dinners and weekend entertaining. But the real showstopper? Walk out your door and take in stunning views of the nearby fishing lake, just steps from your property. Imagine spending your mornings with a cup of coffee on the open porch watching the sunrise over the water, or casting a line after work without ever leaving the neighborhood. This is the lifestyle most people only dream about. Schedule your private showing today before it's gone!

10. 2025-06-26
    soldstatus
11. 2021-06-22
    soldstatus
12. 2011-01-10
    soldstatus
13. 2010-12-21
    soldstatus 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bedroom / 2 bath manufactured home on over 3/4 of an acreage. Waterview lot of small lake across the street. Home has sheetrocked walls, laminated wood floors and nice carpeted floors. Open floor plan with large kitchen,dining, formal living and Den. Nice personal touches. Master bath has double sinks, garden tub, separate shower, and large closest. FHA Ready !! This is a short sale.

14. 2010-11-18
    historical 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bedroom / 2 bath manufactured home on over 3/4 of an acreage. Waterview lot of small lake across the street. Home has sheetrocked walls, laminated wood floors and nice carpeted floors. Open floor plan with large kitchen,dining, formal living and Den. Nice personal touches. Master bath has double sinks, garden tub, separate shower, and large closest. FHA Ready !! This is a short sale.

15. 2010-10-18
    listed $38,500 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bedroom / 2 bath manufactured home on over 3/4 of an acreage. Waterview lot of small lake across the street. Home has sheetrocked walls, laminated wood floors and nice carpeted floors. Open floor plan with large kitchen,dining, formal living and Den. Nice personal touches. Master bath has double sinks, garden tub, separate shower, and large closest. FHA Ready !! This is a short sale.

16. 2006-11-13
    soldstatus
17. 2006-11-08
    soldstatus
18. 2005-02-18
    historical
19. 2004-11-03
    listed $115,000
20. 2001-11-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,646/yr (+$137/mo · 90.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,813
• − Insurance: −$1,742
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$1,291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$310
• After-tax cash flow: $2,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-11-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-10-18 Listed $38,500 HARMLS
• 2006-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-11-03 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2001-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,813 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.