8071 County Highway 61 · Willow River, MN 55795

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2023 1.40 ac lot $228/sqft · 21% below area Est $461k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this beautifully built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Willow River, constructed in 2023 and set on 1.4 acres. Step inside to find high ceilings, recessed lighting, and an open floor plan filled with natural light. The kitchen features abundant cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a convenient nearby pantry. A spacious living room and dining room, with French doors leading to a 10x10 patio slab - perfect for outdoor enjoyment! Just off the main living space are three well-sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a private en suite bath. The laundry/utility room houses the furnace, air exchange system, and in-floor heat, which is zoned separately for the h

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Recessed lighting
• High ceilings

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINET SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property not fractional ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Asphalt driveway; 2-car garage; Garage dimensions approximately 28 x 26; Garage door width 16 ft, height 7 ft
• Utilities: Private drilled well (well); Septic system (private; compliant); Natural gas; Electric service by Minnesota Power
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Main-level entry
• Construction: Built on slab foundation (approx. 40 x 40 foundation dimensions); Wood construction; Roof replaced or under 8 years old
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Patio; Irregular lot; City street with paved frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including a main-floor full bath)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen with center island; Main floor primary bedroom; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer/Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (66.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (68.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (68.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#806 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, health & safety D.
• Willow River Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #261 of 301 in MN (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $365k implies a 1360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $114,118 (68.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.31% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.04%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 26.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,779
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -20.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $111,638
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $396,905
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55795

• Home prices YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 26.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,418/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $-1,366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,870

Max offer price $123,664

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $365,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $375,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $375,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $375,000 Active 971-char remark
18. 2022-06-02
    soldstatus $25,000
19. 2015-06-30
    historical
20. 2015-04-30
    listed $20,000 Active
21. 2015-01-15
    historical
22. 2014-06-26
    listed $20,000 Active
23. 2005-12-27
    soldstatus $51,000
24. 2004-11-20
    soldstatus $51,000
25. 1999-10-29
    soldstatus $25,000
26. 1998-04-28
    soldstatus $15,000
27. 1993-04-24
    soldstatus $10,000
28. 1991-09-26
    soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,418 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,253 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: +$835/yr (+$70/mo · 34.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,418
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,096
• − Management: −$1,096
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$23,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow River Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2742750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $42,510
• Composite: 29.14/100
• National rank: #6584
• State rank: #261 of 301 in MN

Livability — Willow River

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #20791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow River, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,876

Population outlook (Pine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,565 people
• By 2030: 26,567 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 23,878 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 20,931 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 15,372 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 11,032 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Portuguese 9% Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.6% · R 66.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.82%
• Current HPI: 237.7192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+3376.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $365,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-30 Listed $20,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-26 Listed $20,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1993-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1991-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,418 · +414.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.