Acadia Plan · Ruskin, FL 34221

$334,630

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 339 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Acadia floorplan makes entertaining easy with an open kitchen, dining area, and great room. The primary suite is tucked in the rear of the home, offering plenty of privacy and features a spacious walk-in closet and shower.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite
• Dining area

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $339,630

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Inventory type: Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: Acadia Plan, Palmetto, FL 34221

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Acadia; Living area approximately 1607

🏗️ New construction. The $334,630 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,042.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,016/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $294,474 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $331,042
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13412 Shellmore Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	1mo	$345,500	$215	92
13427 Shellmore Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	6mo	$331,000	$206	89
9138 Dalera Cv	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	3mo	$325,000	$202	87
13808 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,603 (-0%)	2mo	$315,999	$197	83
13705 Shellmore Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,603 (-0%)	3mo	$300,999	$188	81
13435 Shellmore Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,483 (-8%)	3mo	$294,000	$198	74
13420 Shellmore Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,483 (-8%)	4mo	$329,890	$222	72
13415 Shellmore Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,483 (-8%)	7mo	$309,000	$208	70
13816 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,455 (-10%)	3mo	$291,364	$200	66
13807 Shellmore Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,455 (-10%)	3mo	$309,939	$213	66
9332 Chiswell Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,455 (-10%)	3mo	$280,250	$193	63
13709 Iona Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,843 (+15%)	1mo	$520,000	$282	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-56,414
• Equity at exit: $49,359

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-75,340
• Equity at exit: $28,622

Cash invested: $92,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,736
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,966/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,896

Max offer price $331,042

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $209	+0% $95	+5% $-20	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-25	+0% $95	+5% $214	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $179	base $95	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,760
• Closing costs: $9,931
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	16d	1	0.97mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	23d	1	1.18mi
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	21d	1	1.26mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	1.38mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	18d	1	1.42mi
7518 117th Ln E Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	2156	$3,100	$1.44	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $334,630 Active 339 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,630 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,630 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,630 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,630 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,630 Active 331 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,630 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,630 Active 328 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,630 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $334,630 Active 326 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $334,630 Active 325 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,630 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,630 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,630 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,630 Active 318 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,543
• − Property taxes: −$4,966
• − Insurance: −$1,655
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,895
• − Management: −$2,895
• − Depreciation: −$9,630
• Taxable loss: −$4,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,055
• After-tax cash flow: $2,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B