406 S Williams St · Hamilton, TX 76531

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1978 0.32 ac lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $177k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2- bathroom home is nestled in a desirable, well-established neighborhood known for its charm and convenience. Thoughtfully updated throughout, the property features numerous upgrades. The spacious, open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living area. with abundant natural light. In the past few years this home has had new driveway and front entrance installed, additional 5 to 6 inches of spray insulation added, new toilets, outside fully painted, water filtration system installed, replaced all clay sewage pipes from the house to the city sewage line, and installed new breaker box to update the electrical system in the house. Outside, enjoy a well-kept yard with plenty of space for outdoor activities, gardening, or relaxing evenings. With its combination of upgrades, functionality, and location in a sought-after neighborhood, this home is MOVE IN READY and ideal for comfortable living.

Key facts

• New toilets
• Well-kept yard
• New driveway

Tags

• NEW DRIVEWAY
• NEW TOILETS
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• REPLACED ALL CLAY SEWAGE PIPES
• INSTALLED NEW BREAKER BOX
• WELL-KEPT YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.0% in Hamilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#210 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Hamilton ISD (town): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #192 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $185k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,500 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,220
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 4.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1202 Oak Ridge Ln	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,239 (+5%)	8mo	$160,000	$129	79
402 S Williams St	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+14%)	10mo	$225,000	$166	58
604 E Gentry	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,215 (+3%)	5mo	$125,000	$103	55
701 Meadowlark St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-12%)	20mo	$169,000	$162	48
818 E Boynton	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (+7%)	23mo	$150,000	$118	40
615 E Ross St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-8%)	14mo	$198,000	$181	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $88,713
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $270,796
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76531

• Home prices YoY: 17.5%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,932/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $151,516

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-137	+0% $-190	+5% $-242	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-245	+0% $-190	+5% $-134	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-142	base $-190	+0.5pp $-237	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1115 E Ross St Hamilton, TX	3.0	2.0	1341	$1,395	$1.04	15d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-13
   listed $185,000 Active 946-char remark

   Show marketing remark (946 chars)

   This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2- bathroom home is nestled in a desirable, well-established neighborhood known for its charm and convenience. Thoughtfully updated throughout, the property features numerous upgrades. The spacious, open-concept layout offers a bright and inviting living area. with abundant natural light. In the past few years this home has had new driveway and front entrance installed, additional 5 to 6 inches of spray insulation added, new toilets, outside fully painted, water filtration system installed, replaced all clay sewage pipes from the house to the city sewage line, and installed new breaker box to update the electrical system in the house. Outside, enjoy a well-kept yard with plenty of space for outdoor activities, gardening, or relaxing evenings. With its combination of upgrades, functionality, and location in a sought-after neighborhood, this home is MOVE IN READY and ideal for comfortable living.

2. 2022-08-17
   soldstatus
3. 2022-04-11
   soldstatus Closed 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   Adorable move in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage in great neighborhood! This home has been well cared for and features completely renovated bathrooms as well as many other updates. The home sits on a large fenced in yard perfect for small children or pets. The home has beautiful wood floors in the bedrooms, carpet in the living room and hallway, and wood laminate in the dining and kitchen area. Appliances to convey includes oven, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, and dryer. The large back yard has beautiful trees as well as a large covered porch and storage building. The hallway, bedroom, and master bathroom doors are oversized and would allow for handicapped accessibility.

4. 2022-04-11
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   Adorable move in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage in great neighborhood! This home has been well cared for and features completely renovated bathrooms as well as many other updates. The home sits on a large fenced in yard perfect for small children or pets. The home has beautiful wood floors in the bedrooms, carpet in the living room and hallway, and wood laminate in the dining and kitchen area. Appliances to convey includes oven, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, and dryer. The large back yard has beautiful trees as well as a large covered porch and storage building. The hallway, bedroom, and master bathroom doors are oversized and would allow for handicapped accessibility.

5. 2022-03-04
   status Pending 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   Adorable move in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage in great neighborhood! This home has been well cared for and features completely renovated bathrooms as well as many other updates. The home sits on a large fenced in yard perfect for small children or pets. The home has beautiful wood floors in the bedrooms, carpet in the living room and hallway, and wood laminate in the dining and kitchen area. Appliances to convey includes oven, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, and dryer. The large back yard has beautiful trees as well as a large covered porch and storage building. The hallway, bedroom, and master bathroom doors are oversized and would allow for handicapped accessibility.

6. 2022-01-25
   listed $175,000 Active 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   Adorable move in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage in great neighborhood! This home has been well cared for and features completely renovated bathrooms as well as many other updates. The home sits on a large fenced in yard perfect for small children or pets. The home has beautiful wood floors in the bedrooms, carpet in the living room and hallway, and wood laminate in the dining and kitchen area. Appliances to convey includes oven, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer, and dryer. The large back yard has beautiful trees as well as a large covered porch and storage building. The hallway, bedroom, and master bathroom doors are oversized and would allow for handicapped accessibility.

7. 2008-02-15
   soldstatus $65,000
8. 2003-11-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,932 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,932
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$5,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,330
• After-tax cash flow: $-945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822230
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,597
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3293
• State rank: #192 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hamilton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #5259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamilton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,673

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,553 people
• By 2030: 7,212 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 6,566 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 5,976 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 5,077 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,196 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.3) · D 14.0% · R 85.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -53.3pp · 2024: -71.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.3 2020: R+68.4 2016: R+71.4 2012: R+65.5 2008: R+53.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.83%
• Current HPI: 226.8273
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+184.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-25 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2008-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,932 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.