5209 Field Dr · Lake Park, GA 31636

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,382 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2005 0.40 ac lot $134/sqft · 20% below area Est $230k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD! 100% USDA Financing! Well-built home! Roof and HVAC system are 2 years old. Large Kitchen with lots of cabinets and counter space. Trey ceiling in the living room and master bedroom. Ceiling Fans throughout. Lots of windows for natural lighting . A Fenced-in Back Yard with a screened porch area (screen is missing). With a full price offer the seller is willing to give a $7500 flooring allowance and a $7500 Interior paint allowance. This house will not last long. Call for an appointment.

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Large kitchen
• Screened porch

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• SCREENED PORCH
• NATURAL LIGHTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Cement siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($853/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#119 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $185k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,416
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -19.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4910 Ivandale Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+11%)	2mo	$230,000	$150	77
4911 Ivandale Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+12%)	3mo	$224,900	$146	76
5299 Old US 41,s	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,446 (+5%)	1mo	$187,500	$130	58
4819 Fernwood Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,450 (+5%)	2mo	$219,900	$152	56
5522 Danieli Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-12%)	8mo	$179,900	$147	56
5530 Danieli Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-10%)	15mo	$154,900	$125	52
5514 Danieli Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-9%)	22mo	$172,900	$137	48
5369 Moss Oak Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+4%)	22mo	$190,000	$133	45
4917 Diamond Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+14%)	13mo	$269,900	$171	40
4815 Fernwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+15%)	9mo	$215,000	$136	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,481
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,478
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31636

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,749/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4901 Liberty Cir Lake Park, GA	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,600	$1.05	21d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 511-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $185,000 Active 511-char remark
3. 2004-12-20
   soldstatus $119,400
4. 1978-06-01
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,749 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,749 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,749
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$550
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lake Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #8632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,184

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.27%
• Current HPI: 205.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+85.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $185,000 SGMLS
• 2004-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $119,400 Public Records
• 1978-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,749 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.