3531 Landale Dr · Beacon Square, FL 34691

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1972 5,100 sqft lot Est $281k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP! WATERFRONT, SINGLE FAMILY, ONE CAR GARAGE HOME WITH TONS OF NATURAL LIGHT UNDER $100K! FRESH CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HOUSE. WATER VIEWS FROM ALMOST EVERY ROOM! ENJOY A CUP OF COFFEE ON THE SCREENED LANAI WHILE WATCHING THE WILDLIFE FROM YOUR OWN BACKYARD.

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Water views
• Newer roof

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• SCREENED-IN LANAI
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HURRICANE PROOF WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER AC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R4
• Financial info: No CDD; Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.12-acre lot
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Lakefront with 60 feet of lake frontage; Lake view and lake access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-230/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (1.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.7% in Beacon Square — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Trace Elementary School (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 611 students, 84% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 48% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $199k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,616 (1.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3627 Edenwood Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-3%)	3mo	$260,000	$171	88
3407 Honeymoon Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+8%)	1mo	$270,000	$160	81
3339 Honeymoon Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+9%)	1mo	$308,000	$182	78
3149 Rock Valley Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$194	73
3619 Ashton Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,471 (-6%)	2mo	$225,000	$153	72
3406 Honeymoon Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-14%)	4mo	$240,000	$180	68
3431 Springfield Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-14%)	3mo	$219,900	$165	67
3645 Overland Dr	0.14mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,416 (-9%)	2mo	$270,000	$191	67
3147 Mela Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-5%)	1mo	$375,000	$253	60
3604 Delta Pl	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-14%)	2mo	$220,000	$165	59
4031 Grayton Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,670 (+7%)	2mo	$150,000	$90	55
3510 Chattsworth Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+11%)	2mo	$340,000	$197	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,213
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,256
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $979/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $195,616

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $37	+0% $-19	+5% $-75	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-100	+0% $-19	+5% $62	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $31	base $-19	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3431 Overland Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,850	$1.50	26d	1	0.13mi
3549 Winder Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,500	$1.62	1d	1	0.20mi
3637 Winder Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	6d	1	0.26mi
3528 Rock Royal Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1052	$1,700	$1.62	1d	1	0.27mi
4010 Stratfield Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,035	$1.19	6d	1	0.66mi
3444 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	26d	1	0.72mi
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	19d	1	0.73mi
3336 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	0.73mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	6d	1	0.73mi
3162 Victoria Inlet Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,375	$1.46	6d	1	0.81mi
2814 Jacob Crossing Ln Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1444	$1,995	$1.38	26d	1	0.83mi
3093 Inlet Breeze Way Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1616	$1,895	$1.17	26d	1	0.83mi
4301 Straits Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.5	1284	$1,790	$1.39	26d	1	0.88mi
3847 Lighthouse Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	23d	1	0.94mi
4036 Sunray Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,350	$1.28	26d	1	1.00mi
4122 Hampton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,795	$1.71	0d	1	1.02mi
3536 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	26d	1	1.04mi
3600 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,800	$1.11	26d	1	1.04mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,633	$1.59	4d	13	1.06mi
4031 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	19d	1	1.06mi
3052 Salton St Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,600	$1.50	26d	1	1.08mi
4022 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	19d	1	1.10mi
4411 Rustic Dr Unit 1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	14d	1	1.14mi
4408 Rustic Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	26d	1	1.16mi
3446 Cincinnati Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,906	$1.57	6d	1	1.22mi
2709 Hawk Roost Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,625	$1.49	19d	1	1.22mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	1d	1	1.28mi
4505 Cottonwood Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	4d	1	1.34mi
3521 Allandale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	26d	1	1.37mi
2620 Cheval Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,699	$1.06	6d	1	1.38mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	3d	1	1.44mi
4282 Rudder Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,000	$1.38	26d	1	1.46mi
4282 Rudder Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,000	$1.53	5d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-05-26
    listed $199,000 Active
11. 2016-01-04
    soldstatus $99,900
12. 2015-12-31
    soldstatus $99,900 Sold 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP! WATERFRONT, SINGLE FAMILY, ONE CAR GARAGE HOME WITH TONS OF NATURAL LIGHT UNDER $100K! FRESH CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HOUSE. WATER VIEWS FROM ALMOST EVERY ROOM! ENJOY A CUP OF COFFEE ON THE SCREENED LANAI WHILE WATCHING THE WILDLIFE FROM YOUR OWN BACKYARD.

13. 2015-12-05
    status Pending 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP! WATERFRONT, SINGLE FAMILY, ONE CAR GARAGE HOME WITH TONS OF NATURAL LIGHT UNDER $100K! FRESH CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HOUSE. WATER VIEWS FROM ALMOST EVERY ROOM! ENJOY A CUP OF COFFEE ON THE SCREENED LANAI WHILE WATCHING THE WILDLIFE FROM YOUR OWN BACKYARD.

14. 2015-11-03
    historical Contingent - Inspections 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP! WATERFRONT, SINGLE FAMILY, ONE CAR GARAGE HOME WITH TONS OF NATURAL LIGHT UNDER $100K! FRESH CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HOUSE. WATER VIEWS FROM ALMOST EVERY ROOM! ENJOY A CUP OF COFFEE ON THE SCREENED LANAI WHILE WATCHING THE WILDLIFE FROM YOUR OWN BACKYARD.

15. 2015-10-06
    listed $99,900 Active 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP! WATERFRONT, SINGLE FAMILY, ONE CAR GARAGE HOME WITH TONS OF NATURAL LIGHT UNDER $100K! FRESH CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HOUSE. WATER VIEWS FROM ALMOST EVERY ROOM! ENJOY A CUP OF COFFEE ON THE SCREENED LANAI WHILE WATCHING THE WILDLIFE FROM YOUR OWN BACKYARD.

16. 2002-08-28
    soldstatus $103,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $979 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$673/yr (+$56/mo · 68.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$979
• − Insurance: −$6,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Beacon Square

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beacon Square, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records
• 2015-12-31 Sold (MLS) $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-03 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-06 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $103,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $979 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.