4490 Hedgewood Dr · Harris Hill, NY 14221

$364,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1955 0.40 ac lot $194/sqft · 15% below area Est $430k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right in and enjoy his step-saving floor plan!! Family sized living room with woodburning fireplace to keep yourself warm on the cold winter nights!!!New carpet and paint in two of the three spacious bedrooms. Newer laminate flooring in the very large eat in kitchen with cupboards and built in storage galore. Small office in the basement. New tankless hot water tank. Septic approx. 4 years old. Great schools and close to it all.

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• Gas fireplace
• Newer windows

Tags

• NATURAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GAS FIREPLACE
• WALK IN PANTRY
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEWER WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner, rectangular lot (approx. 0.4 acre, dimensions 100 x 176)
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with two spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electrical service; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Brick construction; Copper plumbing; Poured foundation; Existing (original) year built; Full basement
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cedar closet(s); Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Window treatments; Drapes; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located on main level and in basement; Tankless water heater; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-501 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.6% in Harris Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $365k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $252,209 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.88%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,035
• List price: $364,900
• Delta: -15.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4495 Hedgewood Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,832 (-3%)	20mo	$283,400	$155	75
8275 Hirschwood Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,829 (-3%)	20mo	$387,000	$212	72
4520 Greenbriar Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,670 (-11%)	5mo	$390,000	$234	70
4227 Susan Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,831 (-3%)	1mo	$535,000	$292	69
4602 Gentwood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+0%)	20mo	$721,000	$382	68
4580 Greenbriar Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,950 (+4%)	21mo	$306,000	$157	65
4530 Greenbriar Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,666 (-12%)	8mo	$460,250	$276	65
8445 Ericson Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-10%)	10mo	$431,000	$255	63
4416 Harris Hill Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,662 (-12%)	20mo	$400,000	$241	49
4179 Foxwood Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,092 (+11%)	11mo	$575,000	$275	41
8473 Sheridan Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,682 (-11%)	18mo	$152,500	$91	36
4277 Wildwood Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-8%)	17mo	$405,000	$233	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-85,798
• Equity at exit: $54,408

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-93,449
• Equity at exit: $31,550

Cash invested: $102,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,131/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,156

Max offer price $276,443

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,225
• Closing costs: $10,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4289 Harris Hill Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1902	$2,500	$1.31	16d	1	0.48mi
4100 Stonegate Ln Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1531	$2,691	$1.76	1d	1	0.77mi
4045 Coventry Green Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,312	$2.26	1d	8	0.81mi
4241 Capstone Cir Williamsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,604	$2.33	1d	8	0.81mi
6842 Main St Unit 3 Bedroom Application Williamsville, NY	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,495	$1.80	1d	1	0.83mi
6842 Main St Unit Townhome Application Williamsville, NY	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,795	$1.69	1d	1	0.83mi
160 Glendon Pl Williamsville, NY	2.0	2.5	1470	$2,310	$1.57	2d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $364,900 Active 1314-char remark
2. 2013-11-12
   soldstatus $169,900 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   Move right in and enjoy his step-saving floor plan!! Family sized living room with woodburning fireplace to keep yourself warm on the cold winter nights!!!New carpet and paint in two of the three spacious bedrooms. Newer laminate flooring in the very large eat in kitchen with cupboards and built in storage galore. Small office in the basement. New tankless hot water tank. Septic approx. 4 years old. Great schools and close to it all.

3. 2013-11-12
   soldstatus $169,900

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   Move right in and enjoy his step-saving floor plan!! Family sized living room with woodburning fireplace to keep yourself warm on the cold winter nights!!!New carpet and paint in two of the three spacious bedrooms. Newer laminate flooring in the very large eat in kitchen with cupboards and built in storage galore. Small office in the basement. New tankless hot water tank. Septic approx. 4 years old. Great schools and close to it all.

4. 2013-09-20
   listed $169,900 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   Move right in and enjoy his step-saving floor plan!! Family sized living room with woodburning fireplace to keep yourself warm on the cold winter nights!!!New carpet and paint in two of the three spacious bedrooms. Newer laminate flooring in the very large eat in kitchen with cupboards and built in storage galore. Small office in the basement. New tankless hot water tank. Septic approx. 4 years old. Great schools and close to it all.

5. 2008-12-18
   soldstatus $139,050

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,131 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,649 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: +$518/yr (+$43/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,440
• − Property taxes: −$5,131
• − Insurance: −$1,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$10,615
• Taxable loss: −$12,588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,021
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Harris Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #5816

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harris Hill, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+162.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $364,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $169,900 Public Records
• 2013-11-12 Sold (MLS) $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-09-20 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2008-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $139,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,131 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.