3431 Cherryland Ave #1 · August, CA 95215

$92,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 99 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition $128/sqft · 56% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your next chapter begins here at Space #1! Welcome to this charming and well maintained home in a 55 plus community! This cute single wide mobile offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath with a little extra room for crafts or other hobbies! Enjoy relaxing on the covered front porch, or spend time gardening in the spacious backyard with great garden potential. This property also includes a convenient wheelchair ramp for easy access, covered carport and a storage shed for tools and other misc. items. If you're looking for a move in ready home with outdoor space and a welcoming community, this one is for YOU! Come check it out yourself!!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious backyard
• Covered carport

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,074 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, crime F.
• Linden Unified (rural): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #806 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $640 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,175 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.65%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,113
• List price: $92,500
• Delta: 56.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4350 Cherokee #42	0.14mi	2/1.0	700 (-3%)	10mo	$60,000	$86	81
3431 - 3431 N Cherryland Ave #49	0.08mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	19mo	$80,000	$111	80
4350 Cherokee Rd #34	0.16mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	13mo	$62,000	$78	64
4350 Cherokee Rd #29	0.15mi	2/1.0	660 (-8%)	23mo	$94,500	$143	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $27,166
• Equity at exit: $13,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $78,007
• Equity at exit: $7,998

Cash invested: $25,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95215

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $92,500

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $725	-5% $693	+0% $661	+5% $630	+10% $598
Rent	-10% $531	-5% $596	+0% $661	+5% $727	+10% $792
Rate	-1.0pp $708	-0.5pp $685	base $661	+0.5pp $638	+1.0pp $613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,125
• Closing costs: $2,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,500 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,500 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,500 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,500 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,500 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,500 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,500 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,500 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,500 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,500 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $92,500 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,500 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,500 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,500 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,500 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,181
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$2,691
• Taxable income: $6,874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,650
• After-tax cash flow: $6,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming mobile home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated design
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen countertops — modernizes the space and increases functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen countertops — modernizes the space and increases functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Linden Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621810
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,534
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #10030
• State rank: #806 of 1400 in CA

Livability — August

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1074
• US rank: #25301

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 26,032

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% Two or more races 23% White 23% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.84%
• Current HPI: 1200.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B