1217 4th Ave S · Texas City, TX 77590

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 295 Days on market

Built 1966 6,250 sqft lot $69/sqft · 59% below area ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roof Installed 11/2024. One story 3 bedroom 1 bath. Investor special. Spacious living area and kitchen. Fenced backyard. Zoned IBD.

Key facts

• Zoned ibd
• Fenced backyard
• 6,250 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• ZONED IBD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 292 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.43%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,126
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -58.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1501 1st Ave N	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+1%)	4mo	$190,000	$154	69
1229 2nd Ave S	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+6%)	13mo	$80,000	$62	69
1121 Grey Heron Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (-4%)	12mo	$276,990	$235	62
1601 Vista Luna Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+11%)	6mo	$246,036	$181	60
1513 Wayside Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-6%)	14mo	$199,900	$174	58
1810 Wayside Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,272 (+4%)	15mo	$180,000	$142	49
1729 1st Ave N	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+6%)	2mo	$169,000	$130	49
1621 Vista Luna Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,042 (-15%)	8mo	$219,995	$211	47
1518 3rd Ave N	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-13%)	8mo	$148,000	$139	39
716 1st Ave N	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,299 (+6%)	18mo	$185,000	$142	38
815 5th Ave N	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (+6%)	14mo	$209,990	$162	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $9,107
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $45,049
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77590

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,679/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1114 1st Ave N Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	847	$945	$1.12	21d	1	0.42mi
1112 1st Ave N Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	847	$945	$1.12	21d	1	0.43mi
1028 5th Ave N Unit 1 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	847	$945	$1.12	12d	1	0.67mi
1228 6th Ave N Unit 1 Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	847	$945	$1.12	12d	1	0.72mi
1001 9th Ave N Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$1,250	$1.54	43d	1	0.80mi
626 8th Ave N Texas City, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,275	$1.27	16d	2	1.00mi
24 1st St N Texas City, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$1,250	$1.33	43d	1	1.07mi
1116 11th St N Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$1,129	$1.05	43d	1	1.14mi
2526 3rd 1/2 Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,550	$1.25	24d	1	1.32mi
1919 13th Ave N Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	1d	6	1.33mi
813 Bay St N Texas City, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1010	$1,420	$1.41	1d	9	1.38mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 286 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 285 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 284 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 281 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 280 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 279 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 278 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 277 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    status Pending 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Roof Installed 11/2024. One story 3 bedroom 1 bath. Investor special. Spacious living area and kitchen. Fenced backyard. Zoned IBD.

15. 2026-05-13
    price $85,000 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Roof Installed 11/2024. One story 3 bedroom 1 bath. Investor special. Spacious living area and kitchen. Fenced backyard. Zoned IBD.

16. 2026-02-24
    status Active 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Roof Installed 11/2024. One story 3 bedroom 1 bath. Investor special. Spacious living area and kitchen. Fenced backyard. Zoned IBD.

17. 2026-02-16
    status Pending 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Roof Installed 11/2024. One story 3 bedroom 1 bath. Investor special. Spacious living area and kitchen. Fenced backyard. Zoned IBD.

18. 2025-11-20
    price $90,000 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Roof Installed 11/2024. One story 3 bedroom 1 bath. Investor special. Spacious living area and kitchen. Fenced backyard. Zoned IBD.

19. 2025-10-03
    price $110,000 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Roof Installed 11/2024. One story 3 bedroom 1 bath. Investor special. Spacious living area and kitchen. Fenced backyard. Zoned IBD.

20. 2025-08-27
    listed $125,000 Active 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Roof Installed 11/2024. One story 3 bedroom 1 bath. Investor special. Spacious living area and kitchen. Fenced backyard. Zoned IBD.

21. 2025-06-30
    historical
22. 2025-04-10
    listed $125,000 Active
23. 2025-01-13
    historical
24. 2024-07-10
    listed $99,000 Active
25. 2023-12-31
    historical
26. 2023-10-17
    status Active
27. 2023-09-29
    status Pending
28. 2023-09-25
    status Option Pending
29. 2023-08-04
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,679 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,679 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,679
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$649
• After-tax cash flow: $3,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,642
• Household income: $65,801
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1821.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 20% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.35%
• Current HPI: 244.5809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-10 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-04 Listed $99,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,679 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.