239 Mill Pond Rd SE · Ludowici, GA 31316

$268,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2001 0.85 ac lot $208/sqft · 14% above area Est $234k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price improvement plus seller-paid closing cost assistance! Welcome to 239 Mill Pond Road SE in Ludowici, GA. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with several valuable upgrades and extras. Seller is offering to help cover buyer closing costs with an acceptable offer, making this a great opportunity for qualified buyers. The HVAC system has been replaced within the last two years, and the sunroom is heated and cooled, giving you additional usable living space year-round. The kitchen features a soft water system, and the back deck includes a hot tub for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the property offers excellent storage and workshop potential. The large 25’ x 25’ insulated shed is heated and cooled with three mini-split systems, includes a covered rear awning, and has its own septic tank with hookups for a bathroom. There is also an additional 12’ x 20’ shed for extra storage. With useful improvements, flexible outdoor space, and seller assistance available, this home is a great opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Hot tub
• Storage shed

Tags

• HEATED AND COOLED SUNROOM
• LARGE INSULATED WORKSHOP
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK
• HOT TUB
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($678/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.4% in Ludowici — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $268k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,146 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,345
• List price: $268,000
• Delta: 14.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
613 S Macon St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-1%)	10mo	$217,000	$169	82
371 Cutters Gap SE	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+1%)	12mo	$225,000	$173	76
3722 Old Darien-macon Darien Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-5%)	2mo	$244,000	$200	66
819 S Mcdonald St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-7%)	3mo	$51,000	$43	61
177 Palmetto Way NE	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,369 (+6%)	8mo	$242,900	$177	59
1046 Buster Phillips Rd SE	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-3%)	15mo	$240,000	$192	58
167 NE Hendrix St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+6%)	3mo	$232,000	$170	58
398 Macon St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-9%)	18mo	$210,500	$180	58
142 Railroad St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+0%)	19mo	$220,000	$170	53
69 N Railroad St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-15%)	1mo	$219,900	$200	51
173 Franklin Tree Dr NE	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-12%)	19mo	$222,300	$196	38
55 Union St	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,472 (+14%)	18mo	$250,000	$170	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $10,606
• Equity at exit: $93,708

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $66,412
• Equity at exit: $126,262

Cash invested: $75,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,161 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,607/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $268,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,000
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 W Franklin St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,250	$1.32	43d	1	0.52mi
147 Rimes Ave SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,100	$1.18	43d	1	0.66mi
34 Pine St Unit C C Ludowici, GA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,395	$1.41	43d	1	0.78mi
171 Baker Field Ln SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,350	$1.30	43d	1	1.19mi
15 Clark St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,995	$1.33	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $268,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $268,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $268,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $268,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $268,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $268,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $268,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $268,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $268,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $268,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $268,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $268,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $268,000 1096-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

    Price improvement plus seller-paid closing cost assistance! Welcome to 239 Mill Pond Road SE in Ludowici, GA. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with several valuable upgrades and extras. Seller is offering to help cover buyer closing costs with an acceptable offer, making this a great opportunity for qualified buyers. The HVAC system has been replaced within the last two years, and the sunroom is heated and cooled, giving you additional usable living space year-round. The kitchen features a soft water system, and the back deck includes a hot tub for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the property offers excellent storage and workshop potential. The large 25’ x 25’ insulated shed is heated and cooled with three mini-split systems, includes a covered rear awning, and has its own septic tank with hookups for a bathroom. There is also an additional 12’ x 20’ shed for extra storage. With useful improvements, flexible outdoor space, and seller assistance available, this home is a great opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-03-13
    listed $270,000 Active 1096-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

    Price improvement plus seller-paid closing cost assistance! Welcome to 239 Mill Pond Road SE in Ludowici, GA. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with several valuable upgrades and extras. Seller is offering to help cover buyer closing costs with an acceptable offer, making this a great opportunity for qualified buyers. The HVAC system has been replaced within the last two years, and the sunroom is heated and cooled, giving you additional usable living space year-round. The kitchen features a soft water system, and the back deck includes a hot tub for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the property offers excellent storage and workshop potential. The large 25’ x 25’ insulated shed is heated and cooled with three mini-split systems, includes a covered rear awning, and has its own septic tank with hookups for a bathroom. There is also an additional 12’ x 20’ shed for extra storage. With useful improvements, flexible outdoor space, and seller assistance available, this home is a great opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-03-13
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

    Price improvement plus seller-paid closing cost assistance! Welcome to 239 Mill Pond Road SE in Ludowici, GA. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with several valuable upgrades and extras. Seller is offering to help cover buyer closing costs with an acceptable offer, making this a great opportunity for qualified buyers. The HVAC system has been replaced within the last two years, and the sunroom is heated and cooled, giving you additional usable living space year-round. The kitchen features a soft water system, and the back deck includes a hot tub for relaxing or entertaining. Outside, the property offers excellent storage and workshop potential. The large 25’ x 25’ insulated shed is heated and cooled with three mini-split systems, includes a covered rear awning, and has its own septic tank with hookups for a bathroom. There is also an additional 12’ x 20’ shed for extra storage. With useful improvements, flexible outdoor space, and seller assistance available, this home is a great opportunity. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2025-11-21
    listed $275,000 Active
22. 2015-09-02
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,466 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$858/yr (+$72/mo · 53.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$1,607
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$3,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$952
• After-tax cash flow: $1,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+123.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $268,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $270,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $275,000 Hive MLS
• 2015-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,607 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.