11686 E State Road 450 · Shoals, IN 47581

$89,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 1955 Fair condition 1.34 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the White River with this cozy cabin located just 13 miles from Bedford. Featuring 1 bedroom, 1 bath, and an open concept living room and kitchen, this property is designed to maximize the views with large windows and a spacious deck overlooking the water and beautiful natural stone formations. Situated on a private road with shared ramp access, this is the perfect spot for relaxation, recreation, or investment potential!

Key facts

• Private road
• Views of water
• Spacious deck

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS DECK
• PRIVATE ROAD
• VIEWS OF WATER
• NATURAL STONE FORMATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-552/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#484 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Shoals Community School Corporation (rural): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #248 of 301 in IN (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Shoals Community Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #652 of 994 statewide, top 68%, 314 students, 52% FRL); Shoals Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #251 of 330 statewide, top 77%, 163 students, 62% FRL); Shoals Community High School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #269 of 369 statewide, top 73%, 192 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Martin County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,236 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $13,987
• Equity at exit: $46,840

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $46,924
• Equity at exit: $77,632

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47581

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $812 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $83,248

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-15	+0% $-46	+5% $-77	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-78	+0% $-46	+5% $-14	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-23	base $-46	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 53 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $89,900 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Escape to the White River with this cozy cabin located just 13 miles from Bedford. Featuring 1 bedroom, 1 bath, and an open concept living room and kitchen, this property is designed to maximize the views with large windows and a spacious deck overlooking the water and beautiful natural stone formations. Situated on a private road with shared ramp access, this is the perfect spot for relaxation, recreation, or investment potential!

19. 2026-04-07
    listed $99,900 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Escape to the White River with this cozy cabin located just 13 miles from Bedford. Featuring 1 bedroom, 1 bath, and an open concept living room and kitchen, this property is designed to maximize the views with large windows and a spacious deck overlooking the water and beautiful natural stone formations. Situated on a private road with shared ramp access, this is the perfect spot for relaxation, recreation, or investment potential!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$780
• − Management: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$2,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $-58/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

A cozy cabin with average condition, requiring minor repairs and maintenance to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas.
• Minor Siding — Siding appears weathered, but no major damage.
• Minor Landscaping — Basic landscaping with some overgrowth

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and staining — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances natural beauty.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
Siding · Siding appears weathered, but no major damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Basic landscaping with some overgrowth	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and staining — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances natural beauty. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shoals Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810170
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,155
• Composite: 24.69/100
• National rank: #7614
• State rank: #248 of 301 in IN

Livability — Shoals

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #484
• US rank: #17159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,828

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,585 people
• By 2030: 9,198 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 8,365 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 7,518 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 5,674 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 3,916 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.7) · D 18.7% · R 79.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -60.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.7 2020: R+58.7 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Current HPI: 252.4425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $89,900 IRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $99,900 IRMLS