4240 Key Vega Ct · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$205,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1986 0.28 ac lot Est $233k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a corner lot, 4240 Key Vega Ct features a covered patio and a fenced in backyard. The residence displays fresh interior paint and fresh exterior paint. Updates include new flooring throughout home and new appliances. These improvements provide a functional foundation for any resident. This home is a perfect blend of style and comfort. Don't miss out on this stunning property! Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• New flooring
• Covered patio

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual property tax noted (details available in listing)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.28 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances included (other)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other appliances (unspecified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($82/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garden City Elementary School (math 62% / reading 37%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 377 students, 68% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); Jean Ribault High School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,385 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 736 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,627 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,944
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10924 Key Haven Blvd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,054 (-4%)	1mo	$145,000	$138	82
4242 Key Vega Dr S	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,153 (+4%)	16mo	$242,000	$210	76
4248 Key Vega Ct	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (+7%)	11mo	$250,000	$211	69
10955 Key Vega Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-6%)	20mo	$239,000	$230	66
10959 Naples Ct N	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+5%)	20mo	$282,000	$243	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-38,097
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-53,139
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 736
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,306/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,818

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $65	+0% $7	+5% $-51	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-65	+0% $7	+5% $79	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $59	base $7	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4212 Pointe Haven Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1054	$1,800	$1.71	26d	1	0.13mi
10881 Key Coral Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1304	$1,695	$1.30	26d	1	0.16mi
11075 Key Coral Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1470	$1,423	$0.97	5d	1	0.16mi
10838 Naples Ct S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,755	$1.37	26d	1	0.21mi
3216 Duane Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,098	$1.47	10d	1	1.13mi
4819 Arrowsmith Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,500	$1.17	17d	1	1.36mi
10871 Copper Creek Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,145	$1.47	17d	1	1.38mi
3025 Armstrong St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,461	$1.30	22d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $205,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $205,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    status Active
16. 2026-05-12
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-30
    price $210,000
18. 2026-04-16
    price $215,000
19. 2026-03-22
    listed $222,000 Active
20. 2026-03-06
    soldstatus $190,600
21. 1988-11-01
    soldstatus $54,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,306 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,306 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,306
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+283.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $210,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $215,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $222,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $190,600 Public Records
• 1988-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,306 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.