1790 Killarn Cir · Lakeside, FL 32068

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1986 8,276 sqft lot Est $242k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this 3 bedroom 2 bath home large backyard, Great starter home.Has a screened in porch to enjoy. Newer AC unit. No HOA,one car garage,new tiles in most rooms. Fresh paint, ready to move in. *** Multiple Offers, Seller has accepted offer but taking back ups.***

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Private bathroom
• Functional layout

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Off-street parking; 1-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Frame construction with stone veneer; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Screened porch; Fenced backyard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Asphalt road access; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Vaulted ceilings; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry area located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coppergate Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 609 students, 100% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $215k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,338 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.44%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1807 Shannon Lake Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+2%)	2mo	$140,000	$128	91
1816 Shannon Lake Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,072 (-1%)	2mo	$265,000	$247	90
1872 Shannon Lake Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-5%)	12mo	$245,000	$239	79
1860 Killarn Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,052 (-3%)	10mo	$245,000	$233	78
1875 Shannon Lake Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+7%)	18mo	$259,000	$224	70
3165 Sanderling Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+11%)	13mo	$276,900	$232	63
1848 Shannon Lake Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,219 (+13%)	13mo	$160,000	$131	62
1860 Hollars Pl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+12%)	17mo	$290,000	$240	54
1891 Hunters Trace Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+14%)	7mo	$228,000	$185	52
3406 Alec Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+6%)	9mo	$230,000	$202	50
1822 Jake Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+9%)	16mo	$259,000	$220	40
3417 Alec Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	20mo	$265,000	$221	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-19,987
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,604
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,721

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,711	$1.30	20d	1	0.69mi
2995 Biloxi Trl Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,750	$1.23	4d	1	0.71mi
3640 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,710	$1.45	1d	1	0.74mi
3437 Talisman Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,779	$1.37	10d	1	0.80mi
1854 Alberta Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,775	$1.49	23d	1	1.00mi
1608 Twin Oak Dr W Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,845	$1.45	1d	1	1.18mi
1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,900	$1.57	23d	1	1.20mi
1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,000	$1.36	23d	1	1.34mi
3223 Merganzer Trl Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,755	$1.52	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $215,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $215,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-05-15
   listed $215,000 Active
9. 2018-05-17
   soldstatus $131,000
10. 2018-05-10
    soldstatus $131,000 Sold 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom 2 bath home large backyard, Great starter home.Has a screened in porch to enjoy. Newer AC unit. No HOA,one car garage,new tiles in most rooms. Fresh paint, ready to move in. *** Multiple Offers, Seller has accepted offer but taking back ups.***

11. 2018-05-04
    status Pending 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom 2 bath home large backyard, Great starter home.Has a screened in porch to enjoy. Newer AC unit. No HOA,one car garage,new tiles in most rooms. Fresh paint, ready to move in. *** Multiple Offers, Seller has accepted offer but taking back ups.***

12. 2018-04-30
    historical Active - Contingent 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom 2 bath home large backyard, Great starter home.Has a screened in porch to enjoy. Newer AC unit. No HOA,one car garage,new tiles in most rooms. Fresh paint, ready to move in. *** Multiple Offers, Seller has accepted offer but taking back ups.***

13. 2018-04-29
    listed $134,900 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom 2 bath home large backyard, Great starter home.Has a screened in porch to enjoy. Newer AC unit. No HOA,one car garage,new tiles in most rooms. Fresh paint, ready to move in. *** Multiple Offers, Seller has accepted offer but taking back ups.***

14. 2015-04-30
    soldstatus $54,639 Sold 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

15. 2015-04-15
    status Pending 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

16. 2015-02-03
    listed $73,140 Active 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

17. 2015-02-03
    price $65,440 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    This property is bank owned. It is sold in “as-is” condition without repairs or warranty. Buyer is responsible for verifying all information contained in this listing.

18. 2008-07-31
    historical
19. 2008-07-03
    historical
20. 2008-07-02
    listed $132,900
21. 2007-11-14
    listed $147,900
22. 2005-12-19
    soldstatus $126,500
23. 2005-12-02
    historical
24. 2005-12-01
    soldstatus $126,500
25. 2005-11-03
    listed $125,000
26. 2004-09-02
    historical
27. 2004-09-01
    soldstatus $112,000
28. 2004-08-31
    soldstatus $112,000
29. 2004-07-19
    listed $109,900
30. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $59,900
31. 1986-11-01
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$71/yr (+$6/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$214
• After-tax cash flow: $2,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1492.6% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $215,000 realMLS
• 2018-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-10 Sold (MLS) $131,000 realMLS
• 2018-05-04 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-04-30 Contingent — realMLS
• 2018-04-29 Listed $134,900 realMLS
• 2015-04-30 Sold (MLS) $54,639 realMLS
• 2015-04-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-02-03 Listed $73,140 realMLS
• 2015-02-03 Price Changed $65,440 realMLS
• 2008-07-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-07-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-07-02 Listed $132,900 realMLS
• 2007-11-14 Listed $147,900 realMLS
• 2005-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $126,500 Public Records
• 2005-12-02 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2005-12-01 Sold (MLS) $126,500 realMLS
• 2005-11-03 Listed $125,000 realMLS
• 2004-09-02 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-31 Sold (MLS) $112,000 realMLS
• 2004-07-19 Listed $109,900 realMLS
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 1986-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,713 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.