Denali II Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$318,680

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · SingleFamily · 317 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Denali's elongated foyer impresses upon entry. Enjoy cooking in the spacious kitchen that overlooks the great room and outside patio. The primary suite in the back of the home features dual vanity sinks, a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Outside patio
• Elongated foyer
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• ELONGATED FOYER
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• OUTSIDE PATIO
• PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITY SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price indicated (listing data available)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Denali II); Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1269 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan-style new construction (Denali II plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $318,680 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,671.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $275,988 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,671
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11266 Bellewood Ter	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,269 (0%)	0mo	$300,000	$236	96
11333 Bellewood Ter	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,269 (0%)	0mo	$316,000	$249	94
9534 Coastline Way	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+11%)	11mo	$368,950	$263	35
9474 Shorebird Ct	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+11%)	10mo	$395,430	$281	34
9461 Shorebird Ct	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+11%)	13mo	$364,250	$259	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-67,105
• Equity at exit: $49,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-96,991
• Equity at exit: $28,417

Cash invested: $92,028 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,930/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,875

Max offer price $315,494

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,168
• Closing costs: $9,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	15d	1	0.69mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	10d	1	1.05mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	1.14mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	15d	1	1.28mi
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	14d	1	1.35mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	1.39mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	23d	1	1.46mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	3d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,680 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,680 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,680 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,680 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,680 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,680 Active 311 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $318,680 Active 309 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,680 Active 308 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $318,680 Active 307 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $318,680 Active 306 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,680 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $318,680 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,680 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,680 Active 299 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,411
• − Property taxes: −$4,930
• − Insurance: −$1,643
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,649
• − Management: −$2,649
• − Depreciation: −$9,561
• Taxable loss: −$6,726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,614
• After-tax cash flow: $521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B