10307 Heritage Bay Blvd #1222 · Heritage Bay, FL 34120

$344,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Condo public records · 143 Days on market

Built 2007 $1246/mo HOA · 24% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spectacular views of the lake and golf course from this beautifully decorated and furnished, 2nd floor, 2 bedroom and 2 bath unit just waiting for new owners. This home is IMMACULATE, MOVE-IN READY AND PRICED TO SELL!!! This unit features diagonally set neutral tile and carpet, window blinds, upgraded dining room and kitchen lighting fixtures, crown molding, ceiling fans and more. Kitchen with morning room and breakfast bar has wood paneled cabinets, solid surface counters and stainless steel appliances. Master BR is equipped with walk in closet, dual sinks and walk-in shower. Heritage Bay offers a buyer golf equity and fabulous community amenities including clubhouse with dining, fitness center, pro-shop, pool and tennis courts. Heritage Bay is wonderfully located to all the fantastic amenities of Naples including our beautiful beaches.

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Electric blinds
• Pull down blinds

Tags

• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• ELECTRIC BLINDS
• PULL DOWN BLINDS
• LARGE STORAGE UNIT
• DESIGNATED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual recurring community fees and one-time fees apply
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Professional management; Master HOA fee assessed annually; Condo fee assessed quarterly; HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, pest control (exterior), recreation facilities, reserves, security, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room/fitness center, bocce, pickleball, tennis courts, restaurant, sauna, bike storage, extra storage, sidewalks, underground utilities; Gated, golf-course community with private/optional membership and golf-bundled program; One-time mandatory club fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned covered parking; Detached 1-car carport; Deeded parking and paved driveway; Guest parking available; Paved parking
• Security: Gated community; Guard at gate; Patrolled security
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Mid-rise building (4-7 stories); Traditional style; Rear exposure faces west; Built in 2007; Concrete block construction; Located in Heritage Bay, Terrace sub-community
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Stucco finish; Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Storage; Impact resistant windows and doors; Tile roof; Stucco exterior; Gated community with guard at gate and patrolled security; Golf course and lake views with preserve; Zero lot line; Lake waterfront; Central irrigation; County-maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Cooktop - electric; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer; Disposal; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen / dining (family)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Screened lanai/porch; Common elevator; Turnkey furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included; Washer/Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $345k).
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Corkscrew Elementary School (math 76% / reading 73%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 863 students, 35% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,092/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 409% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→33/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.61%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-50,816
• Equity at exit: $51,426

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-73,677
• Equity at exit: $29,821

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34120

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1124
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,471/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$1,246
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,069
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,713

Max offer price $344,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10313 Heritage Bay Blvd #1342 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,500	$5.28	23d	1	0.04mi
10307 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,800	$2.35	13d	1	0.07mi
10317 Heritage Bay Blvd #1416 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$7,000	$5.68	23d	1	0.08mi
10321 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1320	$6,500	$4.92	21d	2	0.12mi
10321 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1301	$5,400	$4.15	23d	3	0.12mi
10330 Heritage Bay Blvd #2626 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$6,900	$4.88	23d	1	0.14mi
10329 Heritage Bay Blvd #1622 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$5,500	$4.46	23d	1	0.18mi
10338 Heritage Bay Blvd #2514 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,500	$1.77	23d	1	0.18mi
10333 Heritage Bay Blvd #1715 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$6,000	$5.03	23d	1	0.19mi
10337 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1213	$4,400	$3.63	23d	4	0.22mi
10275 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$4,500	$3.46	23d	2	0.27mi
10270 Heritage Bay Blvd #3422 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$6,500	$4.60	23d	1	0.29mi
10345 Heritage Bay Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$4,425	$3.59	13d	2	0.30mi
10349 Heritage Bay Blvd #2117 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	13d	1	0.33mi
10353 Heritage Bay Blvd #2226 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,500	$5.28	23d	1	0.37mi
10353 Heritage Bay Blvd #2226 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$6,500	$5.28	13d	1	0.37mi
10044 Siesta Bay Dr #9412 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,500	$1.77	23d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,246 · $14,952/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   status Active
3. 2026-03-12
   status Pending With Contingencies
4. 2025-12-20
   price $344,900
5. 2025-11-10
   listed $359,000 Active
6. 2025-07-31
   historical
7. 2025-03-11
   price $399,000
8. 2025-02-21
   listed $419,900 Active
9. 2021-06-29
   soldstatus $259,000
10. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus $259,000 Sold 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Spectacular views of the lake and golf course from this beautifully decorated and furnished, 2nd floor, 2 bedroom and 2 bath unit just waiting for new owners. This home is IMMACULATE, MOVE-IN READY AND PRICED TO SELL!!! This unit features diagonally set neutral tile and carpet, window blinds, upgraded dining room and kitchen lighting fixtures, crown molding, ceiling fans and more. Kitchen with morning room and breakfast bar has wood paneled cabinets, solid surface counters and stainless steel appliances. Master BR is equipped with walk in closet, dual sinks and walk-in shower. Heritage Bay offers a buyer golf equity and fabulous community amenities including clubhouse with dining, fitness center, pro-shop, pool and tennis courts. Heritage Bay is wonderfully located to all the fantastic amenities of Naples including our beautiful beaches.

11. 2021-05-28
    status Pending 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Spectacular views of the lake and golf course from this beautifully decorated and furnished, 2nd floor, 2 bedroom and 2 bath unit just waiting for new owners. This home is IMMACULATE, MOVE-IN READY AND PRICED TO SELL!!! This unit features diagonally set neutral tile and carpet, window blinds, upgraded dining room and kitchen lighting fixtures, crown molding, ceiling fans and more. Kitchen with morning room and breakfast bar has wood paneled cabinets, solid surface counters and stainless steel appliances. Master BR is equipped with walk in closet, dual sinks and walk-in shower. Heritage Bay offers a buyer golf equity and fabulous community amenities including clubhouse with dining, fitness center, pro-shop, pool and tennis courts. Heritage Bay is wonderfully located to all the fantastic amenities of Naples including our beautiful beaches.

12. 2021-05-26
    listed $225,000 Active 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Spectacular views of the lake and golf course from this beautifully decorated and furnished, 2nd floor, 2 bedroom and 2 bath unit just waiting for new owners. This home is IMMACULATE, MOVE-IN READY AND PRICED TO SELL!!! This unit features diagonally set neutral tile and carpet, window blinds, upgraded dining room and kitchen lighting fixtures, crown molding, ceiling fans and more. Kitchen with morning room and breakfast bar has wood paneled cabinets, solid surface counters and stainless steel appliances. Master BR is equipped with walk in closet, dual sinks and walk-in shower. Heritage Bay offers a buyer golf equity and fabulous community amenities including clubhouse with dining, fitness center, pro-shop, pool and tennis courts. Heritage Bay is wonderfully located to all the fantastic amenities of Naples including our beautiful beaches.

13. 2019-01-22
    historical
14. 2018-01-08
    listed $219,900 Active
15. 2018-01-03
    historical
16. 2017-06-28
    price $219,900
17. 2017-01-25
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2017-01-24
    historical
19. 2017-01-20
    listed $225,222

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,471 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,471 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 33 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$4,471
• − Insurance: −$3,549
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,889
• − Management: −$4,889
• − HOA: −$14,952
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$239
• After-tax cash flow: $3,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Heritage Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heritage Bay, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,345
• Household income: $93,861
• Rent vs Own: 9.4% rent · 90.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 409.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 13%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.18%
• Current HPI: 316.2474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+53.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $344,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $359,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $399,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $419,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-28 Sold (MLS) $259,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-05-28 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-05-26 Listed $225,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-01-22 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2018-01-08 Listed $219,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2018-01-03 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2017-06-28 Price Changed $219,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-01-25 Listed $225,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-01-24 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2017-01-20 Listed $225,222 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,471 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.