24402 NW Aspen Ln · Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL 34431

$204,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 10,454 sqft lot $194/sqft · 5% below area Est $216k · 5% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Welcome to this brand-new “Aleida” model by Bakan Homes, scheduled for completion August 14th, 2026. This With 1,058 square feet of living space, this charming wood-frame home is designed to offer modern comforts at an accessible price point. Step inside to discover an open concept living area featuring waterproof vinyl plank flooring in the social spaces and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The stylish L-shaped kitchen is equipped with sleek formica countertops and stainless-steel appliances including a dishwasher. Enjoy the contemporary touch of LED pendant lighting in the dining area, adding a touch of elegance to the space. Located in a growing community, this home offers the perfect combination of affordability, modern finishes, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this new construction home in Ocala—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Your investment is protected by a limited Builder Warranty that expires 1 year after the issuance of the Certificate of Occupancy. Pictures are of a recently completed model. Colors, finishes, and appliances may vary from home to home. Estimated completion dates are only an estimate andcan be delayed due to unforeseen circumstances.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-901/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Rainbow Lakes Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,829 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,952
• List price: $204,999
• Delta: -5.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24370 NW Falcon Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,013 (-4%)	3mo	$218,000	$215	87
24223 NW Water Oak Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	7mo	$196,000	$195	78
24025 NW Foxglove Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,058 (0%)	12mo	$205,000	$194	73
24150 NW Banyan Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	14mo	$213,000	$212	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,973
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-39,117
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $194,139

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-4	+0% $-75	+5% $-146	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-142	+0% $-75	+5% $-8	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-23	base $-75	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,999 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,999 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,999 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,999 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $204,999 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,999 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,999 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,999 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,999 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $204,999 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,999 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,999 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,999 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,999 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,999 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $204,999 1266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1266 chars)

    Under Construction. Welcome to this brand-new “Aleida” model by Bakan Homes, scheduled for completion August 14th, 2026. This With 1,058 square feet of living space, this charming wood-frame home is designed to offer modern comforts at an accessible price point. Step inside to discover an open concept living area featuring waterproof vinyl plank flooring in the social spaces and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The stylish L-shaped kitchen is equipped with sleek formica countertops and stainless-steel appliances including a dishwasher. Enjoy the contemporary touch of LED pendant lighting in the dining area, adding a touch of elegance to the space. Located in a growing community, this home offers the perfect combination of affordability, modern finishes, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this new construction home in Ocala—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Your investment is protected by a limited Builder Warranty that expires 1 year after the issuance of the Certificate of Occupancy. Pictures are of a recently completed model. Colors, finishes, and appliances may vary from home to home. Estimated completion dates are only an estimate andcan be delayed due to unforeseen circumstances.

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $207,900 Active 1266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1266 chars)

    Under Construction. Welcome to this brand-new “Aleida” model by Bakan Homes, scheduled for completion August 14th, 2026. This With 1,058 square feet of living space, this charming wood-frame home is designed to offer modern comforts at an accessible price point. Step inside to discover an open concept living area featuring waterproof vinyl plank flooring in the social spaces and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The stylish L-shaped kitchen is equipped with sleek formica countertops and stainless-steel appliances including a dishwasher. Enjoy the contemporary touch of LED pendant lighting in the dining area, adding a touch of elegance to the space. Located in a growing community, this home offers the perfect combination of affordability, modern finishes, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this new construction home in Ocala—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Your investment is protected by a limited Builder Warranty that expires 1 year after the issuance of the Certificate of Occupancy. Pictures are of a recently completed model. Colors, finishes, and appliances may vary from home to home. Estimated completion dates are only an estimate andcan be delayed due to unforeseen circumstances.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new home by Bakan Homes is move-in ready with modern finishes and a fresh design, offering a great value proposition for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Install LED lighting in bathrooms — Modern lighting improves ambiance and energy efficiency
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances home's appeal and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Install LED lighting in bathrooms — Modern lighting improves ambiance and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances home's appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Lakes Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 72.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $204,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $207,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid