99 E State St · Wellsville, NY 14895

$114,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1890 8,712 sqft lot Est $127k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious single-family home located on . 20 acres with a fenced side yard and detached garage. The seller has hired a contractor to install a new front deck and stairs. Enter this home into the enclosed front porch. The main floor includes a nice sized living room, formal dining room and a remodeled eat-in kitchen that includes stainless steel appliances. Also, on the main floor are 2 nice sized bedrooms, a half bath and a mudroom with washer/dryer hook ups. Upstairs you will find 2 additional bedrooms, an office area and a full bath with a Jacuzzi tub and separate shower. There is a partial unfinished basement.

Key facts

• Fenced side yard
• Office area
• New front deck

Tags

• FENCED SIDE YARD
• NEW FRONT DECK
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• REMODELED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OFFICE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 6.6% in Wellsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#336 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment C-.
• Wellsville Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #442 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $115k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.90%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,224
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
99 E State St	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,674 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$57	97
52 Sunset Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,659 (-1%)	13mo	$125,000	$75	63
269 S Main St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,790 (+7%)	6mo	$169,000	$94	62
125 N Brooklyn Ave	0.58mi	4/1.5	1,677 (+0%)	13mo	$118,600	$71	60
12 Trapping Brook Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,702 (+2%)	7mo	$129,000	$76	53
163 S Broad St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (-10%)	13mo	$110,000	$73	53
64 E Hanover St	0.40mi	4/1.0	1,440 (-14%)	3mo	$111,000	$77	51
334 Madison St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	3mo	$230,000	$160	48
67 Early St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,758 (+5%)	11mo	$128,000	$73	47
283 E Dyke St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,874 (+12%)	13mo	$132,000	$70	41
366 S Main St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,792 (+7%)	15mo	$168,920	$94	37
191 Rauber St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,888 (+13%)	8mo	$180,000	$95	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $76,139
• Equity at exit: $103,511

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $213,755
• Equity at exit: $223,225

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14895

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,741/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,112

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-01-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-26
   status Active
3. 2025-08-19
   status Pending
4. 2025-07-09
   listed $114,900 Active
5. 2008-05-30
   soldstatus $48,000
6. 2007-02-27
   soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,741 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,741
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$197
• After-tax cash flow: $2,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630480
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,964
• Composite: 39.71/100
• National rank: #3903
• State rank: #442 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #5669

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellsville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,117

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.16%
• Current HPI: 280.3569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+296.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-26 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-19 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2008-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,741 · -10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.