111 Maple Ave · Oriskany Falls, NY 13425

$65,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 332 Days on market

Built 1989 0.79 ac lot Est $113k · 41% under ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Large ranch with all village services large lot with deep rear yard nice setting, close to playground and all village amenities. Walking distance Oriskany creek for fishing. Over 1600 SQ, foot of living space nice two stall attached garage, Subject needs some TLC to make this a great buyer. Cash only sols as is condition.

Key facts

• Close to playground
• Large lot
• Deep rear yard

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• DEEP REAR YARD
• CLOSE TO PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,047 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Waterville Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #422 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($456 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,992 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.12%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,560
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Broad St	0.17mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (-3%)	18mo	$109,000	$67	64
109 Augusta Rd	0.52mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,712 (+2%)	4mo	$20,000	$12	58
123 College St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,904 (+13%)	6mo	$224,900	$118	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $55,590
• Equity at exit: $48,816

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.56×
• Total profit: $139,586
• Equity at exit: $95,731

Cash invested: $18,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13425

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,865/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $65,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,475
• Closing costs: $1,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-08
   price $65,900
3. 2025-10-24
   price $75,900
4. 2025-09-19
   price $89,000
5. 2025-05-06
   listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,865 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,865 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,691
• − Property taxes: −$2,865
• − Insurance: −$330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,306
• − Management: −$1,306
• − Depreciation: −$1,917
• Taxable income: $4,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,179
• After-tax cash flow: $4,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630160
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,873
• Composite: 41.09/100
• National rank: #3570
• State rank: #422 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oriskany Falls

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1047
• US rank: #20781

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oriskany Falls, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,743

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Current HPI: 366.2278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-34.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $65,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $75,900 CNYIS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $89,000 CNYIS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $99,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,865 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.