3300 Powhatan St · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1954 0.58 ac lot Est $144k · 13% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All this home needs is a little TLC. .. it already has a newer roof and windows, updated septic, central heat and air with a woodstove for backup heat. A large deck and porch was also added recently. Bungalow-style house with full, unfinished basement. Situated on . 58 acre corner lot with above-ground pool. Roof is approximately 10 years old, replacement windows were put in 8 years ago. Central heat and air with a woodstove that is connected to the ductwork for backup heat. Shed DOES NOT convey. Sale is subject to approval by bankruptcy court. 60-90 day closing is needed. Sold as-is. Seller will make no repairs and will give no repair credits.

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Above ground pool
• Replacement windows

Tags

• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• LARGE WRAP AROUND DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,256
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3300 Powhatan St	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$147	99
1805 Ridge Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	771 (-2%)	6mo	$89,500	$116	85
3124 Campbell Ave. Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0	808 (+3%)	6mo	$179,900	$223	79
2022 Hughes Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0	736 (-6%)	1mo	$129,900	$176	78
2301 Gills St	0.27mi	2/1.0	761 (-3%)	11mo	$158,650	$208	73
2121 Hanover St	0.27mi	2/1.0	820 (+5%)	9mo	$168,000	$205	72
1 Powhatan St	0.11mi	2/1.0	723 (-8%)	14mo	$96,000	$133	70
2205 Craig St	0.35mi	2/1.0	747 (-5%)	9mo	$105,000	$141	68
3134 Campbell Ave. Ave	0.22mi	2/2.0	868 (+11%)	1mo	$160,000	$184	67
2948 Triangle Pl	0.30mi	2/1.0	828 (+6%)	13mo	$157,500	$190	66
2210 Duke St	0.36mi	2/1.0	860 (+10%)	12mo	$145,000	$169	57
2808 Raleigh St	0.71mi	2/1.0	840 (+7%)	12mo	$203,000	$242	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-12,829
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,388
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $721/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $972

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2210 Haden St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,050	$1.34	43d	1	0.35mi
2205 Easley Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	43d	1	0.41mi
8 Parkwood Ave Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	840	$895	$1.07	13d	1	0.50mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	43d	1	0.66mi
2336 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1042	$995	$0.95	13d	1	1.09mi
1625 Shaffer St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	43d	1	1.18mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$707	$0.63	21d	6	1.30mi
1810 Laurel St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	43d	1	1.30mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	43d	1	1.44mi
1106 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1018	$875	$0.86	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $125,000
3. 2026-02-11
   price $135,000
4. 2026-01-05
   price $140,000
5. 2025-11-25
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 42.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$721
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,116
• − Management: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $1,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $125,000 LMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $135,000 LMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $140,000 LMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $149,900 LMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $721 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.