2856 Hoover Ave · Springfield, IL 62703

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 862 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

8,000 sqft lot Est $78k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE-IN-CONDITION. 1 STORY HOME- NEW FURNACE(10/2011)- A/C (2 YEARS OLD)- ROOF (5 YEARS OLD) SOME REPLACEMENT WINDOWS-GARAGE IS 2 CAR SIZE BUT 1 DOOR. MUST SEE! SQ FT BELIEVED ACCURATE NOT WARRANTED.

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached gravel driveway; 1-car detached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Single family residence; Shingle roof
• Construction: Building area approx. 862; Partial, unfinished crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with vinyl flooring (approx. 19.3 × 12 ft); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level; Bedroom 1 approx. 11.5 × 9 ft, Bedroom 2 approx. 11.5 × 7.8 ft)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living room; Vinyl in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable available; High-speed internet; Replacement windows; Has unfinished partial crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($992 rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $70k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.76%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2856 Hoover Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	862 (0%)	1mo	$73,000	$85	99
2828 Hoover St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	939 (+9%)	3mo	$50,000	$53	75
2936 Hoover St	0.09mi	2/1.0	950 (+10%)	6mo	$69,900	$74	73
3321 Buckner St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+0%)	10mo	$69,900	$81	64
3217 Buckner St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	860 (-0%)	12mo	$115,000	$134	64
6 Ridge Ct	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	903 (+5%)	3mo	$80,000	$89	59
2652 Yale Blvd	0.68mi	2/1.0	840 (-3%)	7mo	$76,000	$90	58
2910 S 14th St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	955 (+11%)	6mo	$112,500	$118	58
3217 Normandy Road East	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+0%)	9mo	$120,000	$139	55
2911 S 13th St	0.40mi	2/1.0	959 (+11%)	11mo	$81,100	$85	53
3218 Sherman St	0.50mi	2/1.5	791 (-8%)	10mo	$98,000	$124	53
2643 Yale Blvd	0.71mi	2/1.0	780 (-10%)	10mo	$91,000	$117	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $10,334
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $54,118
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,571/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2949 Fox Bridge Rd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$960	$1.07	21d	1	0.03mi
2473 Ladley Ct Unit 2412-1 L Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	43d	1	0.50mi
2473 Ladley Ct Unit 2520-8 RR Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	580	$600	$1.03	43d	1	0.50mi
2473 Ladley Ct Unit 2108-2 B Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	43d	1	0.50mi
2473 Ladley Ct Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	580	$725	$1.25	43d	1	0.52mi
6 Ridge Ct Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	905	$1,350	$1.49	43d	1	0.54mi
110 W Lake Shore Dr Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	21d	1	0.84mi
2328 S 10th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.03mi
604 Bryn Mawr Blvd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	43d	1	1.04mi
2257 S 10th St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	1.12mi
2005 E Laurel St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	1.43mi
2271 E Laurel St Apt 2277 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,145	$1.91	21d	1	1.49mi
2277 E Laurel St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,145	$1.91	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $69,900 Active
3. 2026-04-07
   historical $69,900
4. 2012-04-23
   soldstatus $45,000
5. 2012-04-20
   soldstatus $45,000 199-char remark

   Show marketing remark (199 chars)

   MOVE-IN-CONDITION. 1 STORY HOME- NEW FURNACE(10/2011)- A/C (2 YEARS OLD)- ROOF (5 YEARS OLD) SOME REPLACEMENT WINDOWS-GARAGE IS 2 CAR SIZE BUT 1 DOOR. MUST SEE! SQ FT BELIEVED ACCURATE NOT WARRANTED.

6. 2011-12-07
   listed $49,900 199-char remark

   Show marketing remark (199 chars)

   MOVE-IN-CONDITION. 1 STORY HOME- NEW FURNACE(10/2011)- A/C (2 YEARS OLD)- ROOF (5 YEARS OLD) SOME REPLACEMENT WINDOWS-GARAGE IS 2 CAR SIZE BUT 1 DOOR. MUST SEE! SQ FT BELIEVED ACCURATE NOT WARRANTED.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,571 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,579 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,571
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$952
• − Management: −$952
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,131
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$511
• After-tax cash flow: $2,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+40.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $69,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $69,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) $45,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-07 Listed $49,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,571 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.