20880 Oberg Rd · Anchorage, AK 99567

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1981 0.46 ac lot Est $492k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Peters Creek gem! Park views across the street + winter views of Denali. Move-in ready with $70K+ in updates incl. new septic, windows, paint, LVP flooring & more. 3BR + office/den. Lower level ideal for short term rental. Sunny south-facing deck, fenced yard & huge garage. Great highway/commuter access. HUGE storage off garage perfect for all the toys/gear! Home insp done. Repairs underway.

Key facts

• New septic
• Park views
• Winter views

Tags

• PARK VIEWS
• WINTER VIEWS
• NEW SEPTIC
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW PAINT
• NEW LVP FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit; Built in 1981
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Private yard; Covenant/restriction; Fire pit; Storage; View; Asphalt roof; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Basement; Bedroom and full bathroom on main level; Ceiling fan(s); Family room; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Basement (utility space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $420k (1.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chugiak Elementary (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #25 of 156 statewide, top 18%, 448 students, 17% FRL); Mirror Lake Middle School (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D+, #10 of 36 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Chugiak High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #17 of 61 statewide, top 32%, 905 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools average 19% FRL vs 38% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $420,000 (1.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $491,520
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20880 Oberg Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,920 (0%)	1mo	$425,000	$221	99
22471 Centurion Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-5%)	10mo	$467,900	$256	64
22479 Centurion Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-8%)	10mo	$485,000	$274	62
20838 Helluva St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,880 (-2%)	10mo	$550,000	$293	62
22909 Green Garden Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,959 (+2%)	10mo	$528,000	$270	61
22839 Northwoods Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,900 (-1%)	13mo	$470,000	$247	53
23105 Green Garden Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-8%)	7mo	$429,000	$244	49
21986 Valley Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,019 (+5%)	23mo	$675,000	$334	44
23023 Green Garden Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,820 (-5%)	24mo	$399,000	$219	41
21707 Oberg Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,078 (+8%)	24mo	$519,000	$250	38
23070 Sheltering Spruce Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,088 (+9%)	22mo	$650,000	$311	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-41,843
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-1,534
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99567

• Home prices YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$488 /mo · $5,861/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,664

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $664	-5% $544	+0% $424	+5% $303	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $258	+0% $424	+5% $590	+10% $756
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $532	base $424	+0.5pp $314	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19452 Sullins Dr Chugiak, AK	4.0	2.5	2617	$4,200	$1.60	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   status Active
3. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-06
   listed $425,000 Active
5. 2021-08-05
   soldstatus
6. 2021-06-16
   status Pending
7. 2021-06-10
   price $345,000
8. 2021-05-27
   listed $350,000 Active
9. 2010-06-21
   listed $279,900
10. 2005-04-19
    soldstatus
11. 2005-02-15
    listed $245,000
12. 2002-04-26
    soldstatus
13. 2002-01-10
    listed $189,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,861 · $488/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,861 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$5,861
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,032
• − Management: −$4,032
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $5,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• City population: 218,117
• Population (ZIP): 6,739

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Native American 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.74%
• Current HPI: 279.3784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+123.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $425,000 AKMLS
• 2021-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-16 Pending — AKMLS
• 2021-06-10 Price Changed $345,000 AKMLS
• 2021-05-27 Listed $350,000 AKMLS
• 2010-06-21 Listed $279,900 AKMLS
• 2005-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-15 Listed $245,000 AKMLS
• 2002-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-10 Listed $189,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,861 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.