1011 N Lincoln Ave · Bay City, MI 48708

$82,400

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1895 4,791 sqft lot $77/sqft · 17% below area Est $100k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Subject to Seller Finiding Suitable Housing. 24 Hour Notice to show. This versatile home features 1 bedroom, 1 full bathroom, and a kitchen upstairs making it perfect for in-law living, or adult children who want their own space. Home also has a fully fenced yard, ideal for pets or outdoor enjoyment, along with a charming front porch—the perfect spot to relax with your morning coffee. Additional features include central air and a 1.5-car garage for extra storage and parking. Updates include: New furnace, Updated circuit breaker, New carpet upstairs, Main floor bathroom remodel all done in 2022. New garage roof in 2024. With solid updates already completed, this home has a lot of possibilities for a versatile living arrangements.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Charming front porch
• Two unit property

Tags

• TWO UNIT PROPERTY
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• CENTRAL AIR
• NEW FURNACE
• UPDATED CIRCUIT BREAKER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $82k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,456 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.79%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,798
• List price: $82,400
• Delta: -17.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1009 N Hampton St	0.17mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,081 (+1%)	0mo	$140,000	$130	82
307 N MCLELLAN St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,089 (+2%)	1mo	$95,000	$87	65
510 N Farragut St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+3%)	7mo	$90,000	$82	62
1110 Chase St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,011 (-5%)	8mo	$115,500	$114	62
2110 4th St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+4%)	9mo	$78,000	$71	56
2135 4th St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-2%)	10mo	$115,000	$111	54
234 N Farragut St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,108 (+4%)	8mo	$61,800	$56	51
1518 11th St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (+4%)	12mo	$105,000	$95	46
413 N Johnson St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,167 (+10%)	8mo	$118,900	$102	46
2121 7th St	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,182 (+11%)	2mo	$175,000	$148	44
1517 11th St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+13%)	1mo	$143,000	$119	42
224 N Farragut St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,218 (+14%)	9mo	$95,300	$78	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $10,895
• Equity at exit: $12,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $40,746
• Equity at exit: $7,124

Cash invested: $23,072 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$432
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,134/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $710

Max offer price $82,400

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,600
• Closing costs: $2,472
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	43d	1	0.51mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	0.63mi
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	43d	1	1.19mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $82,400 Pending 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,400 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,400 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,400 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $82,400 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $82,400 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $82,400 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $82,400 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $82,400 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $82,400 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-05-07
    price $82,400 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Subject to Seller Finiding Suitable Housing. 24 Hour Notice to show. This versatile home features 1 bedroom, 1 full bathroom, and a kitchen upstairs making it perfect for in-law living, or adult children who want their own space. Home also has a fully fenced yard, ideal for pets or outdoor enjoyment, along with a charming front porch—the perfect spot to relax with your morning coffee. Additional features include central air and a 1.5-car garage for extra storage and parking. Updates include: New furnace, Updated circuit breaker, New carpet upstairs, Main floor bathroom remodel all done in 2022. New garage roof in 2024. With solid updates already completed, this home has a lot of possibilities for a versatile living arrangements.

12. 2026-04-15
    price $84,900 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Subject to Seller Finiding Suitable Housing. 24 Hour Notice to show. This versatile home features 1 bedroom, 1 full bathroom, and a kitchen upstairs making it perfect for in-law living, or adult children who want their own space. Home also has a fully fenced yard, ideal for pets or outdoor enjoyment, along with a charming front porch—the perfect spot to relax with your morning coffee. Additional features include central air and a 1.5-car garage for extra storage and parking. Updates include: New furnace, Updated circuit breaker, New carpet upstairs, Main floor bathroom remodel all done in 2022. New garage roof in 2024. With solid updates already completed, this home has a lot of possibilities for a versatile living arrangements.

13. 2026-04-07
    status Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Subject to Seller Finiding Suitable Housing. 24 Hour Notice to show. This versatile home features 1 bedroom, 1 full bathroom, and a kitchen upstairs making it perfect for in-law living, or adult children who want their own space. Home also has a fully fenced yard, ideal for pets or outdoor enjoyment, along with a charming front porch—the perfect spot to relax with your morning coffee. Additional features include central air and a 1.5-car garage for extra storage and parking. Updates include: New furnace, Updated circuit breaker, New carpet upstairs, Main floor bathroom remodel all done in 2022. New garage roof in 2024. With solid updates already completed, this home has a lot of possibilities for a versatile living arrangements.

14. 2026-04-05
    status Pending 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Subject to Seller Finiding Suitable Housing. 24 Hour Notice to show. This versatile home features 1 bedroom, 1 full bathroom, and a kitchen upstairs making it perfect for in-law living, or adult children who want their own space. Home also has a fully fenced yard, ideal for pets or outdoor enjoyment, along with a charming front porch—the perfect spot to relax with your morning coffee. Additional features include central air and a 1.5-car garage for extra storage and parking. Updates include: New furnace, Updated circuit breaker, New carpet upstairs, Main floor bathroom remodel all done in 2022. New garage roof in 2024. With solid updates already completed, this home has a lot of possibilities for a versatile living arrangements.

15. 2026-03-18
    listed $89,900 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Subject to Seller Finiding Suitable Housing. 24 Hour Notice to show. This versatile home features 1 bedroom, 1 full bathroom, and a kitchen upstairs making it perfect for in-law living, or adult children who want their own space. Home also has a fully fenced yard, ideal for pets or outdoor enjoyment, along with a charming front porch—the perfect spot to relax with your morning coffee. Additional features include central air and a 1.5-car garage for extra storage and parking. Updates include: New furnace, Updated circuit breaker, New carpet upstairs, Main floor bathroom remodel all done in 2022. New garage roof in 2024. With solid updates already completed, this home has a lot of possibilities for a versatile living arrangements.

16. 2022-12-09
    historical
17. 2022-12-09
    historical
18. 2022-11-14
    price $84,900
19. 2022-11-13
    price $84,900
20. 2022-10-11
    listed $89,900 Active
21. 2022-10-11
    listed $89,900 Active
22. 2015-08-07
    soldstatus $50,000
23. 2009-02-03
    soldstatus $52,000
24. 2009-01-30
    soldstatus $52,000
25. 2008-12-19
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,134 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,201 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,616
• − Property taxes: −$1,134
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,144
• − Management: −$1,144
• − Depreciation: −$2,397
• Taxable income: $3,454
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$829
• After-tax cash flow: $3,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $82,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-05 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-12-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-12-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-11-14 Price Changed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-13 Price Changed $84,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-11 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-10-11 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2009-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-30 Sold (MLS) $52,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-12-19 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,134 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.