1282 Lakeshore Dr · Holiday Lake, IA 52211

$239,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1967 9,583 sqft lot $150/sqft · 13% below area Est $274k · 13% under $32/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

?? This is the kind of lake home everyone ends up at after a day on the water. Designed for both full-time living or weekend getaways, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an easy, open layout built for relaxing and gathering. The main living space flows comfortably, creating a welcoming atmosphere for everyday living or hosting. The finished lower level adds valuable extra space—perfect for a rec room, game area, or additional hangout zone. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding, this home adapts to your lifestyle. Step outside to the covered porch and enjoy the lake view, an ideal spot for morning coffee or evenings at the lake. With added space and flexibility not often found in similar homes, this property stands out. Plan your showing and start enjoying lake life.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Partial lake view
• Modern cabinetry

Tags

• PARTIAL LAKE VIEW
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MODERN CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-730 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (54.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (54.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (54.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.8% in Holiday Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#524 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Community School District (rural): math 72% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #101 of 289 in IA (top 35%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Poweshiek County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Poweshiek County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $108,205 (54.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.09%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,979
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -12.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $60,574
• Equity at exit: $190,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $210,898
• Equity at exit: $387,806

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52211

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $110,024

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $239,000 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    ?? This is the kind of lake home everyone ends up at after a day on the water. Designed for both full-time living or weekend getaways, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an easy, open layout built for relaxing and gathering. The main living space flows comfortably, creating a welcoming atmosphere for everyday living or hosting. The finished lower level adds valuable extra space—perfect for a rec room, game area, or additional hangout zone. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding, this home adapts to your lifestyle. Step outside to the covered porch and enjoy the lake view, an ideal spot for morning coffee or evenings at the lake. With added space and flexibility not often found in similar homes, this property stands out. Plan your showing and start enjoying lake life.

15. 2026-03-08
    listed $249,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    ?? This is the kind of lake home everyone ends up at after a day on the water. Designed for both full-time living or weekend getaways, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an easy, open layout built for relaxing and gathering. The main living space flows comfortably, creating a welcoming atmosphere for everyday living or hosting. The finished lower level adds valuable extra space—perfect for a rec room, game area, or additional hangout zone. Whether you're entertaining or unwinding, this home adapts to your lifestyle. Step outside to the covered porch and enjoy the lake view, an ideal spot for morning coffee or evenings at the lake. With added space and flexibility not often found in similar homes, this property stands out. Plan your showing and start enjoying lake life.

16. 2025-09-22
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2022-09-07
    soldstatus $205,000
18. 2022-08-31
    soldstatus $205,000
19. 2022-04-12
    listed $205,000
20. 2021-07-29
    listed $249,900
21. 2020-04-30
    listed $129,900
22. 2015-06-16
    listed $129,900
23. 2012-05-19
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,400 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,076 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$676/yr (+$56/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$13,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,219
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1905490
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,307
• Composite: 61.79/100
• National rank: #734
• State rank: #101 of 289 in IA

Livability — Holiday Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #11725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday Lake, IA
• Population (ZIP): 2,671

Population outlook (Poweshiek County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,601 people
• By 2030: 18,342 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 17,944 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 18,029 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 19,945 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 22,637 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: English 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Poweshiek

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+13.3 2016: R+6.8 2012: D+9.1 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.56%
• Current HPI: 332.4308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+107.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $239,000 IAR
• 2026-03-08 Listed $249,000 IAR
• 2025-09-22 Listed $250,000 IAR
• 2022-09-07 Sold (MLS) $205,000 IAR
• 2022-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-12 Listed $205,000 IAR
• 2021-07-29 Listed $249,900 IAR
• 2020-04-30 Listed $129,900 IAR
• 2015-06-16 Listed $129,900 IAR
• 2012-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,400 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.