638 Lillian St · Watertown, NY 13601

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1953 5,000 sqft lot Est $125k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This absolutely cute as a button cape cod style home is newly available in the city of Watertown. Located on a quiet side street and just a quick few minutes to the back gate of Fort Drum. This sweet little house offers a great sized garage and fenced in yard. .. especially nice as it is a corner lot. Inside and 2 good sized bedrooms and 1 bathroom on the 1st floor as well as a spacious and cozy living room and kitchen. Upstairs in an additional bedroom but is currently unfinished. With a little elbow grease and small additional investment this home could be a fully finished 3 bedroom home with plenty of equity available. If a small project is up your alley check this one out quick!!!

Key facts

• Cozy kitchen
• Quiet side street
• Cape cod style

Tags

• CAPE COD STYLE
• QUIET SIDE STREET
• FENCED IN YARD
• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• COZY KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,129 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,250
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
638 Lillian St	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	750 (0%)	0mo	$125,000	$167	95
231 Stuart St	0.16mi	2/1.0	726 (-3%)	10mo	$159,900	$220	79
644 Burlington St	0.13mi	2/1.0	756 (+1%)	19mo	$11,700	$15	77
247 Stuart St	0.14mi	2/1.0	847 (+13%)	11mo	$158,000	$187	63
683 Flower St	0.56mi	2/1.0	768 (+2%)	20mo	$75,000	$98	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,632
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $34,581
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	44d	1	0.45mi
351 W Main St Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	0.67mi
152 Court St Unit 5 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	44d	1	0.79mi
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.82mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	0.88mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,253	$0.87	44d	9	0.91mi
334 Clay St Unit 4 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,070	$1.53	44d	1	0.93mi
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	1.09mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-06
   listed $134,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$817/yr (+$68/mo · 126.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$142
• After-tax cash flow: $1,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-18 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $134,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · -32.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.